Tariffs will not return to us production: Poll Supply Chain

If China is losing some production as a result President Trump’s tariffsSpeech in the new CNBC supply chain poll. Trump’s administration states that there is a reshuffle of the boom, but most companies reports CNBC that costs can double to return the supply networks, and instead a new search for low -tariff modes around the world will start.

Almost three quarters of the respondents (74%) stated that the cost was the main reason that they would not redo production with the following qualified job search (21%). Trump’s administration promised Tax reduction for companies This returns production, but the poll revealed that the taxes are lower in the cost of the cost of production decision -making.

Despite some recent Loud ads from the technology sectorincluding Nvidia’s plans on supercomputers In the USA and Apple’s commitment to invest $ 500 billion In the country, most companies lead to costs as beyond. The technical sector received an appeal on Friday evening from new tariffs to China and other world production countries, but the Trump administration goes forward with the investigation of national security aimed at critical technology for future tariffs.

Most of the respondents who accept the survey estimate that the price tag of creating a new home supply chain will be at least a double current expense (18%), and it will probably be more than twice as expensive (47%). Instead of moving the supply chains back to the US, 61% said it would be more economically relocated for supplies to low -tariff countries.

In addition to tariffs, consumer demand and raw material prices, as well as the “inability of the administration to provide a consistent strategy”, were given as a major supply chain.

Most respondents (61%) say they feel that Trump’s administration is “mocking corporate America”.

The survey included 380 respondents from companies in the supply chain and business organizations held from April 14 to April 8. The poll was sent to the member The US Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, National Retail Federation, US Clothing and Shoes Association, Shoe Distributors and Retail Sellers, Council Price Management, Ol USA, Seko Logistics and Logistics.

Among the respondents who testify to the interest in restoring the supply chain in the US, they are waiting for a process that will take many years, and 74% are waiting for three to five years, if not more: 41% said at least three to five years; 33% said more than five years.

Automation will prevail over human workers

When production returns to the US, automation will become the main component of the economic model, 81% of respondents say it will be used more than human workers.

“The labor market in the US is concerned when considering the movement back to the US,” said Mark Bax, CEO CEO CSCMP.

In modern conditions, the dismissal is directly concerned when the respondents are almost evenly broken between those who plan to reduce the number (47%), and those who say they have no current recovery plans (53%). Most respondents expect job reduction over the next nine months and 38% for two to three months.

Fed poll published on Monday, found A surge of fears about dismissal.

Now the most common reaction to Trump tariffs is the cancellation of orders (89%), based on the expectation that consumers will be distracted by the costs that 75% of respondents said they were forecasting. 61% of those who participated in the survey said for the new tariff products that they would raise the prices.

“The direct impact has the abolition of the order, and the risk of dismissal of consumer expenses is attentive,” Bucks said.

Surveys’ respondents expect the most stringent products as a result of consumer costs will be discreted products (44%), furniture (19%) and luxury (19%).

“Today, we have seen a great deal of cancellation or pause for freight traveling from China, but we see an increase in volumes and front load from other Asia countries, which have forced their mutual tariffs for 90 days,” said Paul Basher, Vice President of the Global Settings on his Logistics.

Warning about recession from supply chain

Sixty -three percent of respondents warn a recession that affects the US economy this year as a result of Trump tariff policy, with about half (51%) those who expect it to get into Q2.

“The supply networks that support millions of jobs in the United States forcing US manufacturers and providing affordable choice for US consumers, now feel early signs of damage from these devastating tariffs,” said Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Association and Shoes. “Higher prices, work loss, product deficits and bankruptcy will only be some hardships that the US economy, while the president pursues this unwanted tariff policy.”

He used to say CNBC that Damage to business across the economy Soon it can be “irreversibly”.

Trump National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset said on Monday that more than 10 countries have made “amazing” trade offers in the US and it is “100%” guaranteed The recession does not go.

Several surveys that take the pulse of the executives show the broad expectations that The recession may have already begun Either there is Fast ahead.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that based on the conversations he led with the leaders across the economy, the US or there is very close to recession or already in recession Now.

Smaller businesses and startups say the tariffs will be catastrophic and are at risk of US work.

“Small consumer companies that started with an innovative idea do not have capital in investing in construction plants,” said Bruce Kaminstein, NY Angels member and founder and former CEO Casabella products. “They were forced to go abroad from the lack of production facilities here at the US factories in China, welcomed our business and helped us to market our products,” he said.

At this time of year, when retailers order their subjects for the school and holidays, and while importers distract from 5% to 30%, the poll states, most respondents say the school orders and festive institutions did not specifically affect. But most respondents (75%) indicate that they will increase the price of these seasonal goods with high demand. They also believe that companies are preparing for a cautious consumer. There is greater attention in goods with less prices for holidays (67%) and more advertising items (21%). Aspiration luxury (7%) and luxury (5%) ranked last among the planning for the holiday season.