China does not deviate from Trump’s tariff war. What’s next?

The trade war between the two largest economies in the world does not show signs of slowing – Beijing promised to “fight the end” a few hours after US President Donald Trump threatened almost double the tariffs for China.

That can leave Most Chinese imports standing before stunning 104% – sharply escalation between the two sides.

With a term that comes in Washington when Trump threatens to submit additional tariffs from Wednesday, who first blinks?

“It would be a mistake to think that China will retreat and remove tariffs unilaterally,” says Alfred Mantafar-Hella, a senior adviser at the Chinese Center at the Analytical Conference Center.

“It will not only make China weak, but also give leverage to the US to ask for more. We have now reached a deadlock, which will probably lead to long -term economic pain.”

Global markets have fallen since last week, when Trump tariffs, which are oriented in almost every country, began to take effect. Asian stocks that Monday saw their worst drop After the Trump administration did not hesitate, on Tuesday it resumed.

Meanwhile, China has retreated back with the power for power – 34% – and Trump warned that he would avenge an additional tariff by 50% if Beijing does not retreat.

The uncertainty is high, with more tariffs, starting with more than 40%, on Wednesday began. Many of them hit the Asian economy: tariffs for China will grow to 54%, and those in Vietnam and Cambodia increase to 46% and 49% respectively.

Experts are worried about the speed at which it happens, leaving governments, businesses and investors little time to set up or prepare for an extremely different world economy.

China had Responded to the first round of tariffs on Trump with beatings for tits In some imports of the United States, export control over rare metals and antitrust investigations of American firms, including Google.

This time he also announced the tariffs, but it also seems to attach pain with stronger measures. This allowed her currency, Yuan weaken, making Chinese exports more attractive. And state -owned enterprises buy actions that it seems to move to market stabilization.

The prospect of negotiations between the United States and Japan seemed to have buffa investors who fought to give up some losses of the last days.

But the fight between China and the US is the largest exporter in the world and its most important market – the main problem remains.

“What we see is a game that can pass a greater pain. We have stopped talking about any sense of profit,” said Mary Maria, US-Kita Trade Expert at the Peterson Institute in Washington, Newshour BBC reported.

Despite Its slowing economyChina can “very well ready to survive the pain to avoid surrender to what they believe is US aggression,” she added.

The Chinese just don’t spend enough enough. Borrowed local authorities are also fighting for increasing investment or expansion of the social security network.

“Tariffs are strengthening this problem,” said Andrew Coler, a senior employee of the Business and Government Center at Harvard Kennedy School.

When China’s exports come, it hurts the decisive revenue flow. Exports have long become a key factor in China’s explosive growth. And they remain an important driver, although the country is trying to diversify its economy with high -class technology production and more internal consumption.

It is difficult to say exactly when the tariffs are “bite, but probably fast,” says Mr. Coler, adding that “(President XI) is faced with an increasingly complicated choice with a delayed economy and decline resources.”

But it’s not just China that will feel the impact.

According to the US trade representative, the US imported the product in China worth $ 438 billion (342 billion pounds), and US exports to China worth $ 143 billion, leaving a $ 295 billion deficit.

Smartphones, computers, lithium-ion batteries, toys and video game consoles are the bulk of Chinese exports to the US. But there are so many other things from screws to boilers.

And it is unclear how the US is going to find alternative supplies for all these goods in such a short time.

Baku taxes in Baku are “economically intertwined in many ways – there is a large amount of investment in both ways, a lot of digital trading and data flows,” says Deborah Elms, Head of the Hingapore Fund’s Trade Policy Department.

“You can only raise only for so long. But there are other ways like both countries can hit each other. So you can say that it can’t deteriorate, but there are many ways it can.”

The rest of the world is also observed to find out where Chinese imports will go from the American market.

They will find themselves in other markets such as southeastern Asia, adds Ms. Elms, and “these places (deal) with their own tariffs and think about where else can be sold?”

“So we are in a completely different universe, the one that is really muddy.”

Unlike the trade war with China during Trump’s first term, which went on negotiations with Beijing, it is unclear what motivates these tariffs, and it is very difficult to predict where everything can come from, “says Roland Raja, a leading economist at the Low Institute.

China has a “wide tool set” for revenge, he adds, for example, depreciating his currency further or clamping on US companies.

“I think the question is how they will be restrained? There is revenge to keep your face and pulls out the whole arsenal. It is unclear whether China wants to go this way. It can just.”

Some experts believe that the US and China may participate in private negotiations. Trump has not yet talked since Return to the White House, though Beijing has repeatedly signaled his willingness to talk.

But others hope less.

“I think the US is overcoming your hand,” says Mrs. Elms. It is skeptical of Trump’s belief that the US market is so profitable that China or any country eventually bend.

“How will it end? Nobody knows,” she says. “I am really concerned about speed and escalation. The future is much more complicated and the risks are just so high.”