Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
On March 8, 2023, boats in the Mui Harbor, Vietnam.
Alexandra Shuler | Drawing alliance Gets the image
Vietnam has long been regarded as a successful example to accept foreign trade by luring some of the world’s largest companies to create hubs to make everything from shoes to electronic products that exquisite stores around the world.
But now the concern is that US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs can thwart Vietnam’s ambitious growth targets, despite diplomatic top to Washington, which, according to economists, are unlikely to move the policy.
Trump struck Southeast Asia nation with 46% of import dutyone of the coolest among the More than 180 countriesApplying a strong blow to the nation that received Almost 90% of the annual gross domestic product The World Bank estimates that from exports of goods and services in 2023.
New levies can cut into 1.2 percentage points from Vietnam’s economic growth this year, according to the OCBC Bank’s economists’ team, which made them reduce GDP forecast for the country to 5% in 2025. This will mean a significant dent to the ambitious goal of Hanoi from the goal of Hanoi with “At least 8%” this year.
This year, the growth of the South -East Asia’s economy has already slowed down, increasing by 6.93% in the first quarter, which is compared to 7.55% a quarter earlier.
Vietnam has emerged as a manufacturing center for many companies that sell goods to the US, including multinational consumer sellers such as Nike. Adidas. Uniqlo and Apple Inc.Due to the combination of relatively cheap labor costs and supports public policy.
According to the Nike’s annual reports for 2024, factories in Vietnam produced 50% shoe and 28% of their clothes while Adidas got 39% of shoe items from Vietnam last year. Apple also has expanded its production in Vietnam In recent years, approximately 20% iPad production and 90% of Apple products as Apple Watch held in Vietnam.
Ever since the last US-Kita trade war broke out during the first term of Trump in 2018, many Chinese manufacturers have also transferred their production to Vietnam to avoid tariffs in the US.
A trading surplus in Vietnam in goods from the US is more than triple on Record high 123.5 billion Last year, with less than $ 40 billion in 2018, according to the United States, which tied Vietnam goods to the US $ 136.6 billion in 2024.
The new levies announced by Trump last week can reduce Vietnam’s total exports by as much as 40% this year, OCBC Bank reports. The bank referred to the data of Vietnam’s customs authorities, which showed that Vietnam’s goods exported about 30% of the total trade.
New responsibilities can also reduce the attractiveness of the production base in the country, weighing direct foreign investments coming in Vietnam.
But as is often the case with International Trade StatisticsThere are discrepancies between the official figures reported by the US and Vietnam, partly because of the differences in the evaluation methods.
Nguyen Thu Oanh, Head of Inflation Department in Statistics, said Sunday New US tariffs may force some foreign companies to move part of their production from Vietnam, Bloomberg reports.
“Mutual tariffs for ASEAN and India will harvest the” China+1 “strategy that benefits the region for several years,” said economists from OCBC Bank, but “it will take time to make global supply networks.”
Heavy road for transaction
In addition to China, Vietnam will face a more difficult way to reach an agreement with Washington than others in Asia, said Chetton Ahia, the chief economist in Morgan Stanley, thanks to his great surplus from the US and his role in promoting the supply of Chinese companies.
After AS A telephone call with Trump last FridayVietnam Lam leader said the country is ready to delete all US import fees, giving a tariff rate up to 0%if Trump administration will do the same for exports to Vietnamese to the US
He also reaffirmed Hano’s commitment to improving the US imports to reduce the bilateral trade surplus and encouraged US companies to increase investment in Vietnam.
In response to questions about the zero tariff in Vietnam, said the White House trade advisor Peter Navaro This was not enough To guarantee the cancellation of new levies.
“Let’s take in Vietnam. If they come to us and say,” We will go to zero tariffs, “this means nothing because it matters that the deception is nontariff,” said Navaro CNBC “Box for Squawk. “
The examples of the “Defense of the Uninargan”, given by Navarro, included Chinese products through Vietnam, theft of intellectual property and the value added tax that Trump criticized as hidden trading barriers.
As a result of the widespread “mutual tariffs” Trump Hanoi sought to offer trade compromises, including Reduced tariffs by several American products such as liquefied natural gas and machines, and approval Trial Starting on Satellite Internet Service Starlink In the country.
China avenged 34% of additional tariffs on all American goodsBut most Asian economies decided to refrain from direct revenge.
Negotiations on Asian economies from the US cannot “bring the desired results, especially for countries working with a big trade surplus with the US, such as Vietnam,” said Michael Wang, Asia Elder Economist in Mufg Bank.
While negotiations in Vietnam with Trump administration may “have some fruits”, the US is unlikely to reduce “sharply” tariffs from the proposed levels, he said.
China’s retribution was to negotiate in Vietnam with us because politicians are worried that Chinese firms could use more softer tariffs in Vietnam, Van said.
