In the future trading transaction AGOA

On Thursday, there was a “scary” and “destructive” day for people participating in the textile forest sector when they digest the news that the country’s export to the US would suffer from 50% import tax or tariff.

Tabach Kobel, which founded textile Afri-EXPO and works in the country of 2000 people, barely masked his trouble when he told the BBC about the impact of the potentially loss of a huge piece on the American market as his goods will have to increase.

A small South African nation has become a pedagogical poster for the African growth and opportunities (AGO) -25-year-old US legislation that guarantees free access to US consumers for certain African goods.

The purpose is to be considered a cornerstone of US economic relations, the purpose was to help the continent’s industrialization, create employment and deprive dozens of poverty countries.

It was based on philosophy replacement for trade assistance.

The general influence of the law is due to the dispute, but it is attributed to the creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs, especially in the textile sector.

Although President Donald Trump did not mention this by name, AGOA status is now uncertain.

Like so much that came out of the White House in Vihura in the first few weeks of its presidency, the proclamation of the Wednesday sowed confusion – especially in this case, in Africa.

On the one hand, there is AGOA, with it without tariffs, and on the other there is Trump, which teaches tariffs within 10% (including Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana) up to 31% (South Africa) and 50% (forest).

What has the advantage?

South Africa, which exports metals and machines to the US, believes it calls the end of AGOA.

“Mutual tariffs effectively annul the advantages used by the Saharan Africa,” said foreign and trade ministers of South Africa in a joint statement on Friday.

But Kenya’s Chief Secretary of Foreign Affairs Carir Singa received another.

“We believe that by the end of September 2025 the law will not stop, or if only canceled Congress, the new tariffs imposed by President Trump are not immediately applied,” he said in a statement.

Kenya, which exports clothes in the US, tried to put a brave face in this matter, saying that since it was not as strong as other textile exporters such as Vietnam and Sri Lanka, he would still have a competitive advantage.

Whatever happens to Yeah in the direct term, it seems that the broad tariffs of Trump expressed hopes for the restoration of the legislation.

The Clinton Age, which in the current climate begins to feel a relic of the past, was updated at the end of this year.

Since 2000, some African countries have had free access to the US market, including clothing and textiles, cocoa products and wine, as well as crude oil.

Access has been linked to a number of conditions, including free market policies, human rights and political pluralism. Thirty -two countries from the Saharan Africa were entitled to last year.

In 2023, bilateral trade in Aha amounted to $ 47.5 billion (36.4 billion pounds), and the US exported goods worth $ 18.2 billion and imports of $ 29.3 billion.

Due to the entry into the continent’s largest economies, South Africa and Nigeria prevailed in the field of law, but the forest was fully used and became significant exporters of clothing to the US, supplying brands such as Walmart, Gap and the Old Fleet.

But the future without AGOA – for logging and others – there are big problems.

If nothing changes, “the tariff with 50% sounds like mortality before AGO’s production,” says Mukhis Kitin, former UN Secretary General for Trade and Development and former Kenyan Trade Minister.

In 2018, the World Bank model the scenario when Lesotho survived the sudden loss of the AGOA privileges and found that the impact “reaches 1% GDP” for two years. The report concluded that the influence on welfare would be “dramatic”.

But, as evidenced by the reduction of the assistance, arguing about the influence of a person or justice, it will not fly in the current setting before “devastating populism and after the reign,” says Dr. Kitin.

He believes that countries, like Kenya, in which new 10% tariffs can still try to hold positions in the US market, and exporters and their US importers negotiate how to absorb new taxes without raising the prices for the consumer.

As Dr. Kitin participated in trade negotiations, including AGOA, he saw the efforts that pass into “refinement of these processes” to create “common benefit from a stable, predictable trade to the rules.”

But now he believes that such agreements “hostages of the wishes of the dominant political group in America”.

Michel Gavin, a senior researcher on politics in Africa in the Foreign Affairs Council based in Washington, said that, as new tariffs were calculated, “it makes no sense to economists.

It is difficult to see “any clear strategy or intention” from the Trump administration so far it tells the BBC.

But the solutions will only worsen the loss of American influence in Africa, she warns. China, already the largest trade partner of the continent, can take advantage of further benefits.

“It looks like a conclusion, ignoring the whole huge region of the world,” says Ms. Gavin.

When the Trump administration brutally went to the US Agency for International Development, which led to the abolition of both humanitarian and rescue care, the analyst says that America appears, “destroys its own tools with refusal.”

AGOA has long been regarded as an important US soft force tool, especially in contrast to the influence of China and Russia in Africa.

In the past, US legislators had two -party support, and D -Kine perceived it as a “shine of hope.”

The bill, which seeks to extend AGOA by 2041, was released by Democrats Senator Chris Kuns more than a year ago, but it may not make any progress in the current Congress.

Ms Gavin does not believe that AREA is now a priority given that Trump’s sharp and unpredictable changes have been created.

“I think that the unreceive trade agreement is a very rigid sale for this congress, which is dominated by the Republican Party, which has been very suitable for the administration agenda.”

She believes that while it “makes sense in politics,” it is unlikely to be the front and center of the legislators’ agenda “as a matter of politics”, even if the congress begins to approve itself.

As Trump’s tariffs throw the world on the shock, the specific needs of the continent are unlikely to be the uppermost for others around the world.

If AGEA really becomes non -existent, Africa will have to look at yourself and make a good promise to create a continental free trade area. You will also have to work more to find new trading partners or expand existing markets.