Mohammed El Eriyan says Trump tariffs risk recession in the US

President Donald Trump Wide raft tariffs on imports By exposing the US economy the risk of recession, Mohammed El-El-Erian’s chief economic advisor warned on Friday.

He added that the sign of Trump so -called mutual tariffs could have a significant impact on the world economy.

“You have had a serious rethinking prospects for growth, with a recession to the US to 50% likelihood, you have observed an increase in inflation expectations, up to 3.5%,” he said in Sylvia Omar in CNBC in the Ambrosetti Forum in Seronobbio, Italy.

“I do not think that (recession in the US) is inevitable because the economy structure is so strong, but the risk has become uncomfortable.”

Trump tariffs unfold just like the same Signs of weakness They start showing in the American economy. Last monthFund executives, strategists and analysts reported CNBC that they have noticed a slowdown on the horizon, with the risk of recession increasing to a six -month high.

El Herian said he believes that this year the US economy will expand to 1% and 1.5%, noting that this is a “significant change in growth” compared to IMF projection about 2.7% US growth done earlier this year.

“When we approach 1%, we approach what is known as the” speed speed “,” he said. “The economy does not go fast enough to allow the resources you need. Therefore, as soon as you approach what, I hope, we won’t, the risk of recession will increase significantly. “

In addition to preventing the state of the US economy, when tariffs enter the game, El Eriyan also said the markets underestimate Trump’s aggressive trade policy.

He further warned that the markets underestimate the inflationary effect of the tariff regime.

“The first reaction caused a concern for growth. We did not yet have two other reactions: what would happen with growth in other countries, and this raises the question of whether the dollar’s weakness will continue, and then what (the federal reserve) is doing?” He asked.

Last week, the latest US data showed that basic inflation grew more than expected, with major personal consumption indexes The biggest monthly income for the year.

“I think that when we are lucky, we get one bet, not four, and it will not surprise me unless we get,” El Erian added.

“If it’s a normal Fed – and I say that this qualification with a big accent because it was not normal Fed – we are unlikely to get even one indicator.”

Currently pricing markets for four feds in the Fed during the year, reports Tracker Fedwatch Group CME. At its most recent meeting in March Central Bank Spent its key rate stable in range from 4.25% to 4.5%With the officials who have reduced the growth outlook in the US, but they say they still saw two declines by 2025.

Following the urgent Trump’s mutual tariffs, European currencies entered significant income against the US dollar, with the euro and the British pound Touching to six -month highs against green circulation.

El Erian, however, said he did not expect to see a long-term dollar weakness.

“The market responded to the US growth, lower interest rates, capital decline in the US, and so we saw the dollar index depreciated. I think this is the first round,” he said. “People will realize that if the United States slows down, the rest of the world slows down more than in the US, so I do not believe that we will continue to see the dollar weakness.”

Ultimately, El Eriyan said, economists were divided into what huge import duties for the American and world economy.

“I think in the short term there is a complete consensus on pain (caused by tariffs) in the short term, in the long run,” he said CNBC. “Can you do the case that is the pain for getting later? Yes. Can you do it with conviction? No.”

. Jeff Cox and Steve Lisman CNBC contributed to this report.