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Chinese national flags fall on boats near the containers for delivery to the port of Yanshan outside Shanghai, China, February 7, 2025.
Go Nakamura | Reuters
According to analysts based in Greater China, China’s reaction is China’s reaction to new tariffs in the US is likely to focus on internal stimulation and strengthening ties with trading partners.
Hours after the US president Donald Trump An additional 34% of China, the Chinese Ministry of Trade have announced urged the US to cancel tariffsAnd he promised uncertain countermers. A sweeping US policy They also made new duties in the European Union and major Asian countries.
Chinese exports to the USA this year have already reached 20% in additional tariffs, raising your total supply from China up to 54%Among the highest Trump administration. Effective speed for individual products can change.
But as it was, the final line Chinese statement was an appeal to agree.
“I think there will be no revenge tariffs in the focus of China’s response in the near future,” said Bruce Pang, Associate Professor of the Cuhk Business School. This is in accordance with the translation of CNBC Chinese.
Instead enhanced internal consumption.
China, the second largest economy in the world, has intensified its stimulation efforts since September, expanding the financing deficit, increasing the subsidies program and calling to stop the real estate decline. In particular, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a rare meeting with technological entrepreneurs, including Alibaba Founder Jack Ma in February in the private sector support demonstration.
The abolition of politics – from the normative tightening in recent years – reflects how Beijing “foresaw that there is a slowdown or even emergency exports,” said Macquarie China China Hu Hu in the report, before Trump’s latest announcement. He noted that the export boom caused by the 2021 pandemic “Launch a large -scale adjusting company.”
“My view remains the same,” Hu said in an e -mail on Thursday. “Beijing will use a household incentive to compensate for the impact of tariffs so that they can still achieve” about 5%”.
Instead of tariffs for revenge, Hu also hopes that Beijing focuses on still using black lists, export control on critical minerals and probes to foreign companies in China. Hu also suggests that China will keep Yuan strong against the US dollar and resist the call of retailer to reduce prices – as a way to push inflation on the US
China’s best leaders have announced that this year they will pursue the target of gross domestic product by about 5%, and the task they emphasized will require “very hard work“To reach. The Ministry of Finance also hinted If necessary, increase financial support.
According to Goldman Sachs, about 20% of China’s economy relies on export. Previously, they estimated that new US tariffs make up about 60% in China. The firm still supports the full-year forecast of 4.5% GDP growth.
Changing global trade
What is different from the effects of Trump’s first term is that China is not the only goal, but one of the countries that are facing healthy exports to the US, some of these countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, served as alternative routes for Chinese goods to reach the US.
At the Chinese export center YIWU on Thursday the enterprises seemed impossible to influence new tariffs on the US thanks to their perception Foreign competitors will not get the benefits, said Cameron Johnson, an elder partner in Shanghai at the Tidalwave Solutions consulting firm.
He noted that earlier the United States focused its trading measures on the compulsion of companies to remove China from the supply networks and go to other countries. But Chinese manufacturers have expanded abroad with this diversification, he said.
“The reality is such (the new US tariff policy), in fact, gives China most of Asia and Africa, and the United States is not ready,” Johnson said. He expects China to make things unnecessarily difficult for US enterprises that work in the country, and instead try to build more trade relations.
Since the first four-year term Trump has ended in early 2021, China has so much increased its trade with Southeast Asia that the region is now the largest trading partner in Beijing, followed by the European Union and then the USA
10 South -East Asia (ASEAN) countries have joined Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – What happened in early 2022. US and India are not RCEP members.
“The RCEP member countries naturally deepen trade ties with each other,” said China’s Chinese chief economist on Thursday.
“This is also partly because China’s economy is likely to remain the most – or at least among the most stable, given the government’s great commitment to the goals of growth and willingness to place financial policy measures,” she said.
Uncertainty remains
The degree to which all countries will be hit this week remains uncertain because Trump is supposed to be used as a negotiation tactic, especially with China.
He said last week the United States could reduce its tariffs on China to help make a deal for Beijing Byte for sale of American operations Tiktok.
But the level of new tariffs in China was Worse than waiting for many investors.
“Unlike some optimistic market forecasts, we do not expect the American-Chinese bilateral big deal,” Chinese Chinese economist in Nomura said on Thursday.
“We expect the tension between the two mega-economics to deteriorate significantly,” he said, “especially since China has made great success in high-tech sectors, including II and robotics.”
