The strike marine dusty

“Incredibly”. It was the only word that spoke under her breath Marin Le Pen when she left the courtroom this morning.

She left the court early – before hearing that she was forbidden to run for the post for five years after she was found guilty of theft of EU funds – almost certainly excludes her from standing in the French presidential election.

Without waiting for the judge to say full information about the verdict, the head of the national action knew that her political goose had been prepared.

There would be no payment before the appeal. The bar that works as a position was genuine and direct.

The four -year prison term, which will be suspended, will be stopped in anticipation.

But her political plans are dead.

Perhaps Le -Pena’s distrust may be better justified, perhaps in context.

Consensus almost established itself throughout the political world of France that this final sanction could not – after all – happened.

Not only the followers of Le Pen said. Her enemies agreed: from Jean-Lyuk Melehon to the left of Prime Minister François Bayru in the center and Justice Minister Gerard Darmanin to the right.

Everyone said that Marin Le Pen was too important to be removed from the political scene on the judge’s pen.

Everyone demanded justification from the legal argument. There were no requirements for Judge Benedict de Pur Touts to immediately abandon the barature for the post. The judge had a latitude. Ms de Pepperus took into account the national context, thought, and the involvement of democracy when the front line in the 2027 presidential election was to be removed from the race.

But they were all mistaken. The judge said the law was law.

The law has actually recently been tough – the most politicians who have now complained about its application – make a fine for abuse of state funds really very serious. Well, the judge said in such a number of words that now let politicians suck your own medicine.

Perhaps Marin Le Pen was naive, not predicted this result. It definitely looks as if its national party on the rally was unusually unprepared.

So, when they meet at an emergency session after the sentence, party leaders are in the dilemma.

Are they going as if there is still a chance that the sea le -pyan will work in 2027?

Theoretically there is still (small) opportunity. She has already launched an appeal. The appeal can be accelerated and occurred at the end of this year or early 2026. Will dry in the spring.

Listening of the appeal can lead to a shorter failure or remove it at all – in this case it can still run. But the chances should be considered slim.

Should they continue the B-plan plan, when called 29-year-old party president Jordan Bardelli as an actual man who will run to the sea foam place?

This may be a more realistic assessment of what is ahead. But to turn to the brothel would be too quickly. And in any case, not everyone in the party is a fan.

Behind Marina Le Pen, everyone could unite. Behind the brothel, not much.

On this and many other issues, the fall of the political earthquake is unclear.

What, for example, will the RN vote effect?

In the short term, we can count on resonance and enhancement of the party’s support. Why? Because what has happened so neatly fit into the RN story that the right populist is the victim of the “system”.

Nobody will probably vote for the pH seriously, against Marin Le Pen for the illegal financing of the party using EU Parliament. They all know that every French political party has resorted to similar UNDHHAND methods in the past.

According to the same, its “Dracon” punishment-protected stand for the presidency-will be interpreted as an honorary sign: proof that it is one to the powers.

The longer term, however, can not be so powerful. The truth is that Marin Le Pen is a huge acquisition for RN. This supporter, hardened, sentimental, cat, brutal, long -suffering woman, is kept in a great attachment to her fans who feel that she knows her personally.

Jordan Bardelli is also a popular figure, but at his age it is difficult to see how he fills his shoes. With Marin Le Pen, which comes out of the picture, the pH loses most of its attractiveness.

I am sure that many possible candidates on the right French wing, former Interior Minister Bruno Retalo-in Bardelli’s candidacy will be a great opportunity for himself.

The second unknown is revenge.

Marin Le Pen remains a member of the National Assembly, where she heads the 125 block – the largest in parliament. So far, she has not used this significant block to try to knock down the Prime Minister François Bayru, which is not the majority.

These days may end.

Why we have to do someone else’s services now, they will talk in RN HQ. Why not knock down the house?