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For Frank Bay: The masses are clamoring for boxing’s mega event of the year, Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford, in 2025. Well, not so much. Boxing hasn’t had a legitimate major crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson circus event and the Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis vs. 2023’s Ryan Garcia, who was rumored to have reached the milestone of one million PPV buys. And let’s face it, Davis vs. Garcia wasn’t a mega event like the last true crossover event with the massive appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
Canelo is the last of the PPV boxing stars as the model for success changes due to broadcast, like the Paul vs. Tyson on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez hit the million mark was against Gennadiy Golovkin in his second fight during the HBO days in 2018. Since then, Alvarez’s numbers have dipped and he’s only reaching the around 500,000 to 650,000 PPV reported. It’s only approaching 1 million, with Caleb Plant at 800,000 in 2021, which seems like 20 years ago, considering the boxing landscape now with no more Showtime or HBO.
The fight is being discussed well, and the fight that Bud and Turki Al-Shiekh are calling for is Canelo Alvarez. But it’s honestly not a mega event that hit the 1 million gold standard as every Bud PPV has fallen without Errol Spence, with the Israel Madrimov fight doing a paltry 150,000 PPV buys . Turki bathed in blood at the event, reportedly losing millions even with a stacked undercard and a performance from Eminem. The reality is that the fight is not a crossover fight and would probably do 750k PPV max. The only other reality is a David Benavidez fight which would probably do 800k at most as it’s not a major crossover event as Benny’s PPVs have failed miserably, supposedly making 75k for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023. .
The truth is that Alvarez is in no man’s land, and his options as an opponent of Dmitry Bivol or Artur Beterbiev make less than his fight for Edgar Berlanga because, in the state, Berlanga was a bigger name. I can’t offer a solid prediction as the future looks bleak for Alvarez and his choice of opponents in 2025. A Jake Paul fight would be the direction as he could fight the Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao fight that boxing needs desperately Alvarez’s current 168-pound division has decent fighters, but lacks star appeal in Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco and unknowns in Osleys Iglesias and William Scull. No one would be willing to pay Alvarez north of $35 million to fight on PPV. If we want to get a Bud vs. Canelo MEGA fight, Turki Al-Shiekh will have to come up with at least $100 million to get the US market interested. If anyone can, it’s Turki.
Moving on to the A-list of boxing stars, we have ‘Monster’ Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don’t see any name opponents, except for one to become a real crossover star. Inoue, the number 1 fighter in boxing, has reached his limit. Maybe Top Rank envisioned another meteoric rise like Pac-Man because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny, but he can’t go through weight class after weight class, which was never fair to expect from him. But if Inoue wants to have a breakthrough fight, he’s a Tank Davis, who exists in fantasy land. Inoue has good opponents in front of him at 126 in Bruce Carrington and Rafael ‘El Divino’ Espinoza. Still, none of these fights will make the American media go berserk like Manny did with his name rivals Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Look for Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and set up a rising sun matchup with Junto Nakatani.
The last and least important is Tank Davis, who did nothing to take his throne as the face of boxing after the great success of his Ryan Garcia affair. Beating Frank Martin did nothing for him after losing steam and taking a year off after being in the heater, with that fight reportedly doing less than 200,000 PPV. With Vasily Lomachenko choosing to sit out and fix his back, Davis was left without a viable name to sell his PPV event. He decided to draft Lamont Roach, and now with multiple cancellations, people are wondering if the fight will even happen in 2025. Davis must know he needs a big name in 2025, but there aren’t many except the man he already beat, Ryan Garcia. . The reality is that the other names are not stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney are damaged goods. With a rumored Manny Pacquiao on the verge of a return, the obvious crossover mega event would be a fight between Pac-Man and Tank Davis. A fight between Manny and Davis would put Davis over Alvarez, but something tells me that Davis and his handlers want to play it safe like they always have. Observe adventurous, nothing lost.
