Decisions in court for French hopes of the president

On Monday, the France’s sea le-pane faces a moment of perestroika because the judge rules whether she should be banned by the next presidential election.

The leader of the right who outperforms all his rivals in the 2027 race will be in court at 10:00 by the verification A Court of Financing Party sent to its National Party (RN).

Upon completion of the trial in November, the State Prosecutor demanded the perpetrators for Le Pen and another 24 people who are accused of using EU parliamentary money to pay party salaries.

But before the overall surprise, the prosecutor also stated that Le Pena’s punishment should be not only 300,000 euros (£ 250,000), but also a prison term, but also Failure to do from the state position for five years.

Most importantly, he said that failure to start at once – and not to be suspended before the appeal, which is expected to fall when he is found guilty.

Three judges are not required to follow the prosecutor’s recommendations.

But if they do this, it will mean that le Pen, which is 56 years old Standing in the presidential election In which it tilts as a potential winner.

“This is my political death afterwards,” she said in November.

Many French commentators – and not only those who support Le Pen – warn of the serious consequences of democracy when the judiciary is considered as impeding the choice of the country’s leader.

“The justice system has the fate of the maritime le in their hands … To be convicted of any wrong actions, it is completely normal. But preventing it from working in the presidential (election) is a completely different matter,” writes Franz-Aliveer Gisbert veteran in the LE POINT magazine.

“Is it not dangerous – not to say it is dangerous – to give the judges the task of determining whether this candidate has the opportunity to run for office?” Bruno Eudi said on Sunday, editor of La Tribune Dimanche.

Marin Le Peng told the same newspaper: “Personally, I don’t nerve. But I see people think I could be. The judges have the power of life or death over the movement. But I don’t think they will go so far to do it.”

Different sentence scenarios are close.

For the first time, Le Pen could be released from the EU’s guilt in the parliamentary monetary business. This is widely regarded as unlikely.

Secondly, the judges could condemn her, but not automatic. In this case, it would immediately address non -compliance only after the second trial (and possibly the third to the Supreme Court).

This would allow her to run freely in 2027, albeit with limited conviction for misuse of state money. However, it is not clear that the conviction caused her great damage, given a number of scandals in parties that have affected all French parties for many years.

Third, judges can monitor the prosecutor and order automatic failure. In this case, she would be appealed and other parts of the sentence (fine and prison) will be suspended. However, it will not be able to launch in 2027.

Fourth, the court can give her a shorter term of automatic failure – say, one year – what can theoretically launch.

2027 will become the fourth presidential race Marin Le Pen, and the one who offers the greatest chance of winning.

The JDD’s right-hand newspaper gave her between 34-37% of the voting in the first round, which is ahead of any of her possible competitors.

In the last two presidential persons she was exposed to two rounds Rally by one candidate – Emmanuel Macron – to avoid her power.

But the years of “detoxification” after she darkened her father Jean-Marie Le Pena, led the anti-RN-Galas much less cohesive than before, while winning for the brutal right in other countries helped to raise the Taboo of the RN government.

If Le Pen is forbidden to runHer logical replacement would be Jordan Bardel, a 29-year-old party president, which was well-groomed to become her possible prime minister.

However, the party insiders acknowledge that there is little internal preparation for what is widely seen as a huge and destabilizing political earthquake.

One of the results where in 2027 it was not announced to weaken the French Prime Minister François Bayru. With 120 members in the National Assembly, the pH has the right to vote with the left to the Voting without confidence is to reduce the government.

So far, Marin Le Pen held back her troops. It may feel less prone if it feels the victim of the sewing of the institution.