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Astana, Kazakhstan – January 26: January 26, 2025 people buy sausages and cheese on the agricultural trade market in Astana, Kazakhstan.
Shan Lou | Chinese News Service Gets the image
Analysts, as the state -supported companies sought to replace US imports and redirect exports.
In what seemed to attempt to humiliate the tariff care, Chinese state media on February 10 -In the day when Beijing hit the initial 10% of the energy import tariff in the United States-Views on a trip to Kyrgyzstan, where dozens of Chinese corporate representatives went to the neighboring country to explore partnership opportunities.
“It is expected that the permanent trade war will further deepen economic cooperation with the Central Asia countries,” said Junis Sharifley, Chinese project Global South, by diversifying exports, increasing participation in the regional connection and expansion projects in infrastructure.
China has established itself as a leading trading partner and chief foreign investor for five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan – a block that is considered as a key gateway for its Initiative by belt and roadA major infrastructure program announced by President Xi Jinping during An official visit to Kazakhstan in 2013.
In a significant demonstration of commitment in 2023, the first personal summit with the leaders of Central Asia took place in Beijing, where SI promised to update bilateral investments and trade ties. The coalition leaders are expected to be huddled again in June Next summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.
The US, however “The US Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: the upcoming sovereignty and economic prosperity.”
But his efforts were not enough.
“Central Asia remains a diverse region that attracts too little attention to the US,” said Kurtis Chin, a former US Ambassador to the Asian Development Bank and a senior employee of the Milken Institute.
“More than half of the battle for influence is manifested personally (and), this is that China and Chinese business are often supported by the state, well known, and Americans can be tough to match.”
Bilateral trade between Central Asia and China, the largest trading partner in the region with exit, has been growing steadily in recent years, and last year reached a record high level of $ 94.8 billion. According to CNBC official data, this far exceeded Central Asia trade from the United States, which reached just above $ 4 billion.
China’s exports to the region are mainly machines, electronics, products with goods and vehicles, while Central Asia supplies primarily natural resources, critical minerals and agricultural products to China – that Sharifles called “additional trade relations”.
In particular, two -sided trade between Central Asia and China at the time Trading goods between China and USA at $ 582.4 billion.
Kazakhstan, a broad steppe nation with rich energy and agricultural resources, led to $ 43.8 billion last year, ahead of it Aim to reach $ 40 billion In the annual bilateral trade with China until 2030, the President of the country Kasim-Jamart Tokoyev in 2023.
Chinese President Xi Jinping at a meeting with President Kazakh Kasim-Jamart Tokoi before the China Central Asia summit in Hajan, Shainunsi, China, May 17, 2023.
Florence Lo | AFP | Gets the image
Kyrgyzstan came to the next $ 22.7 billion in trade with China, then Uzbekistan with $ 13.8 billion, Turkmenistan from $ 10.6 billion and Tajikistan with $ 3.86 billion.
China’s imports from Kyrgyzstan grew more than 30 times in 2024 and more than 60 times in the first two months of 2025. Officials from Kyrgyzstan and China at the meeting earlier this month discussed the increase in bilateral trade before the registration so far 45 billion dollars by 2030 As well as plans to accelerate the construction of the new checkpoint and open new flights, reports local media reports Kyrgyzstani.
In retaliation against the introduction of US President Donald Trump, 20% of new tariffs for Chinese goods, Beijing gave additional duties up to 15% on coal, natural gas. cotton, agricultural products From the US
Chinese companies can “double the import of cotton from Uzbekistan and other Central Asia countries,” said Daniel Balas, a researcher at the S. Rajaramom School of International Studies. Despite the fact that the contribution of cotton imports from the region may not correspond to this from the US, it may “mitigate a certain influence,” he said.
China has received 35% of its import cotton from the United States as of 2024, according to the Nomura economists’ team, who expects Beijing to switch to other sources soon.
The majority of Chinese investment output in Central Asia has been mostly in Kazakhstan and to a lesser extent Uzbekistan, according to the Chinese global investment tracker compiled by the American Institute of the enterprise.
Investments were mostly enrolled in sectors such as transport and infrastructure, renewable energy projects and increasingly electric vehicles.
Chinese lead manufacturer by electric car byd last month did its come to Kazakhstan, Having made it the third market of Central Asia, where the automaker was entrenched after Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Shenzhen, China – November 28: November 28, 2024 in Shenzhen, China, China, China, China, China, China, is a leading exporter of electric cars in China.
Xiaolu Chu | Getty Images | Gets the image
Beijing took advantage of expanding its influence in the region, as the thirst for energy retreated after the Covid-19 pandemic, and at a time when Russia, which had a dominant influence in the former Soviet states, got into a grinding war with Ukraine and is subject to international sanctions.
Going forward, “part of the strategic relations of the Russian-China will consist of Russia, which is taking a greater role in the Beijing region,” said Matt Gertken, BCA Research General Geopolitical Strategist.
“Russia will fight for maintaining internal stability and thus will not have resources to maintain the same high degree of impact on Central Asia in the long run,” Gertken said.
Five Central Asian countries supported Neutral position In the conflict of Ukraine, refraining from support either Kiev or Moscow, there is a step Some like careful distances From Moscow.
Feeling these moods, Jeremy Chan, senior analyst group Eurosia Group, said. “Central Asian countries will also be increasingly looking at China – and from Russia – for their needs for trade and investment.”