Optimism is growing around the UK economy amid US-EU trade disputes

London-Cho is investors are increasingly optimistic about the economic worldview of the UK, despite many years of structural weaknesses Deep their trading dispute from the US.

This optimistic tone was not reflected in the Bank of England’s messages as it did Petal rates stable last ThursdayReferring to the enhancement of geopolitical uncertainty and the financial market volatility. However the economic growth of the UK – At best in the last three years – Finally, it is expected that several in 2025, when the Bank of America’s analysts predict 1.4%.

Inflation is still Expected to cool Back to the coming months, the job market is there relaxation but remains reliableand the UK government has a decisive emphasis – Sometimes contradicted – Support growth and reduce the national deficit.

Sanji Raja, the UK chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said he noted a “novice feeling of optimism” on the United States on the whole UK, who had not seen for a while.

The main factors included a turning point to de -deregulation and focusing on higher capital costs, opportunities for a strong trading transaction with the EU next year, and the UK’s expectation will “remain in” Good Books “when the trade war starts,” Raja said in the note earlier this month.

US President Donald Trump has expressed readiness To rid the UK from a blanket or focused tariffs, with expectations is backed up after Prime Minister Keir Stammerer spent a friendly trip To the White House in February.

“The conversation about the US trade transaction also appeared in conversations with customers, and the optimism has intensified that the UK could be devoid of direct and widespread tariffs,” Raja said.

Some believed that “structural growth may increase after a sustainable decrease after the global financial crisis,” he continued, and a A wide European push to increase National defense costs can benefit UK corporation. Concerned about investors left January sale in UK’s state debtFiscal supply and resistance to costs, Raja noticed.

The UK may have been deprived of the worse about Trump’s rhetoric so far – eg it A threat of 200% tariffs on alcohol imports to the EU – But this is not quite insured against Washington’s protectionist push.

Gabriella Dickens, G7 Economist in Axa Investment managers, noted that the UK still confronts the hit with the New US rates on steel and aluminum. UK exported to the US worth £ 370 million (479.7 million) to the US in 2024, according to The UK’s trading group became, which is 9% of total exports of the UK. Last year, aluminum exports to the UK in the US estimated about £ 225 million, last year, According to the aluminum of the UK, the said.

The UK will also be influenced by any slowdown in global trade, including if it leads to the weaker demand in its key partners such as the EU, and if the overall uncertainty blur the confidence in the field of business and consumers, Dickens CNBC said.

“Investor feelings can be raised if the UK can avoid further tariffs, especially if the trafficking in trade is increasing with the EU,” Tokens said. In an unlikely case, if Trump performs his previous threat to 25% of the EU tariffs, the UK will be given a “increase in materials” because the manufacturers are likely to look to move, she said.

The UK can still avoid additional tariffs, as the United States has no large trade surplus and most based on services. He has already pledged to increase his defense costs as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), avoiding most of Trump with other peoples.

“None of them got rid of the UK from steel and aluminum tariffs,” Dickens added.

Lindsay James, an investment strategist in Quilter Investors, also emphasized the existing influence of steel and aluminum duties on the UK and indicated potential risks on the part mutual American tariffs because of what should be announced in early April.

“The idea that VAT is a tariff, it seems, took up the White House, exposing the UK again at risk of entering the US Trade Policy,” James CNBC said.

“Although the reality is probably intentionally represented by the White House to gain an advantage in the negotiations, the UK will not yet be clear, and if Donald Trump’s requirements for Ukraine will be anything, any future trading deal is likely to have a great price.”

James added that, while the government improved the basics of the UK economy ultimate follows from last year’s budget and continues the problems with the “senior and ill Labor force. “

“While the stock market (UK) still took advantage of its perception of protection, a modest starting assessment and high work from highly represented sectors, such as oil and gas and financial resources, the discrepancies from the economy can cause a large limitation index,” she said.