The Chinese real estate market is up to the spray point

Beijing – UBS analysts on Wednesday became the last who raised the expectations that the market fighting in China is close to stabilization.

“After four to five years of the decline cycle, we began to see some relatively positive signals,” said John Lam, the head of the Asia Pacific and the Great Property in China in UBS Investment Bank, a journalist on Wednesday. This is in accordance with the translation of CNBC its tangerine remarks.

“Of course, these signals are not across the country and can be local,” Lam said. “But compared to the past, it must be more positive.”

One of the indicators is to improve sales in the largest cities in China.

Existing at home sales in five major Chinese cities increased by more than 30% more than a year ago as of Wednesday, according to the CNBC analysis that refers through wind information. The category is commonly referred to as “secondary home sales” in China, unlike the primary market, which usually consists of recently built houses.

Currently, UBS predicts that China’s housing prices can stabilize in early 2026, earlier than the mid -2010 forecast. They expect secondary operations to reach half of the total by 2026.

UBS considered four factors – low inventory, land prices, secondary sales rise and rent increase – showing that in February 2025, only rental prices had not seen improvements in February 2025, the firm said.

Chinese politicians in September called “Stop” in the decline of propertyWhich is most of the well -being of households and just a few years earlier, more than a quarter of the economy. Basic developers such as Evergrande have by default by their debtWhile real estate sales have almost halved since 2021 to approximately 9.7 trillion yuan ($ 1.34 trillion), S&P Global Ratings reports.

The Chinese real estate market has started its recent decline in late 2020 after Beijing began to cleanse the high dependence on growth debt. Despite the flurry of central and local government measures over the last year and a year and a half, the drop in real estate is preserved.

But after being announced a stronger incentive at the end of last year, analysts began to predict that the bottom could come later this year.

Back in January Global Ratings S&P repeated their See what the real estate market in China stabilizes in the second half of 2025. Analysts expected the “growth of secondary sales” became the leading indicator of primary sales.

Then, in late February, Macquarie Chinese economist Larry Hu showed three “positive” signals that could support the bottom of the housing prices this year. He noted that in addition to pressing the policy, the level of unsold housing has fallen to the lowest since 2011, and the narrowing gap between the mortgage rates and the lease could push buyers to buy, not rent.

But this week he stated that the fact that the Chinese housing market still has financial support to the Central Bank.

The head of the Asia Real Estate Michelle Kwok said in February that there were “10 characters” which the Chinese real estate market was down. The list included recovery of new home sales, housing prices and foreign investment.

In addition to state -owned enterprises, “foreign capital has started investing in the real estate market,” the statement said, noting that “February 20” two Singapore developers/investment funds purchased land in Shanghai. “

Foreign Investors are also looking for alternative ways to enter the real estate market in China after Beijing announced the pressure on affordable housing rental.

Invesco in late February announced investment in real estate formed a joint venture with a Chinese company Ziroom, known for local rental apartments.

A joint venture called Izara Holdings plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan (about $ 160 million) in 1500-room housing near one of the Beijing Winter Olympics sites, with the 2027 opening.

The units are likely to be leased about 5,000 yuan a month, said in an interview with Calvin Chu, the head of the Asia Pacific, Invesco Real Estate. He said that the financial difficulties of the developers created a market gap, and he expected a joint venture to invest in at least one projects in China this year.

Ziroom database allows the company to quickly evaluate the regional factors to select new events, said Ziroom Asset Management CEO Maine Yue, adding plans to enterprises to eventually expand abroad.

However, the data is still reflecting the fighting market that fights. Real estate investments still decreased by almost 10% in the first two months of the year, according to the flow of official economic figures published on Monday.

“The real estate sector is particularly concerned, because the key data is in the negative territory across the board, and the new home begins that the growth is deteriorating to -29.6% in January -25.5% in the 2024 quarter,” said the main Chinese economist on Monday.

“We have long believed that without the real stabilization of the property sector there will be no real restoration of the Chinese economy,” he said.

Improved secondary sales also do not benefit the developers whose profit has previously received from primary sales. S&P global ratings this month put Vanke on Credit Watch and downgraded their rating on LongFor. Both developers were some of the largest in the market.

“In general, in China (the last) political efforts were quite wide,” an interview in an interview in an interview earlier this month’s investment in the Raffles family office.

“The key at this point is the execution. The sector recovery relies on consumer confidence,” he said, adding that “you do not cancel confidence for the night. Confidence must be earned.”