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Turkish MPS, Mayors, Party Members, Members of Different Political Parties, Representatives of Non-Governmental Organizations and Citizens Protest Against Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Beylikduzu Mayor Murat Calik and Sisli Mayor Resul Emrah Sahan, at the Chp Headquarters in Ankara, Turkey on March 19, 2025.
Evrim Aydin | Anatoly | Gets the image
Turkey’s economy should survive more turbulence and flight of investors, as protests have flared up against the many contradictory arrests conducted by President Recep Teype Erdogan’s government.
Demonstration in response to the arrest of the mayor Istanbul Imomoglu, leading opponent Erdogan, a few days before he was supposed to be nominated by presidential candidate.
Turkish markets sank the most in the world on Wednesday after the news about the delay of Imomoglu broke through, and the lyre got record low to the dollar. This forced the Turkish Central Bank to sell a record foreign currency – almost $ 10 billion, according to bankers’ estimates quoted by Reuters – To reinforce the currency, which has fallen by 15% per dollar over the last year and decreased by 83% over the last five years.
Imomoglu who won on the Merce of the inhabited city of Turkey In April 2024, he was arrested on charges, including terrorism and organized crime, which he and his supporters rejected. Prosecutors also issued warrants for 100 other people, including journalists, business people and members of the Republican Party of the Republican People’s Party Imomoglu (CHP), which is the main opposition group of Turkey. CHP leaders call the “coup” arrest.
The Governor Istanbul’s office imposed prohibitions on protests, as well as the closure of the subway and roads, while social media and Internet access in the country remain strongly restricted. In response, the demonstrators gathered on city barricades and campus to express their anger.
CNBC contacted Turkey’s interior Ministry for comment. Government officials deny that arrests are politically motivated and insist that the courts work independently.
On Thursday, translated into Google, on the Platform X Social Media on Thursday, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Jerlika said that the authorities detained 37 people for reports on social media, who considered provocative and covered “incitement to commit crime,” Google said.
A popular 53-year-old mayor, who won his position in the spring of 2024 in the spring of 2024, was recognized as the most serious competitor in Erdogan’s Turkish presidency. TPA was to hold the primary elections on March 23, during which Imomoglu is supposed to appear as presidential candidate.
Critics of the arrests say this is the most obvious violation of democracy, but the Erdogan government.
“Turkey has already been declining, but this is a political free analysis,” said CNBC Arda Tunca, an independent economist and a consultant based in Istanbul. “Today, history and a new dimension in Turkey’s isolation from democracy.”
Risk for markets and investment flows
The concern of stability and economic security in Turkey can damage the financial influx at a time when the trust of investors in the country is already shaky – and after the monetary politicians in the country have carried out almost two years, working on turning the situation with Turkey’s inflation, economists warn.
“The problems of the rule of law will be maintained, and this is likely to damage longer -term foreign investment streams – which are already low – if only the ACP administration is not able to create a convincing case against Imomoglu,” Timothy Ash, which develops a market strategist in Bluebay Asset Management wrote on Wednesday.
In February, inflation in Turkey remains high – it has recently reaches 39.05% – and is the key point that CHP planned to participate in its campaign against Erdogan. Continuing the sale of LIRA investors can cause deeper inflation, forcing the Turkish Central Bank to increase the interest rates, which are currently 42.5%.
“The development will shoot down investors and lyre, and this will lead to inflation,” said George Dyson, senior analyst and turkey -at -risk specialist, CNBC. However, Dyson and other analysts do not provide that the Central Bank abandons economic Orthodoxy and cutting speed. Rather, they believe that there may be new rates of rates when the weakness of the lyre deteriorates because the bank’s laser accent was in combating inflation.
Turkey “feels safe geopolitically”
The next Turkey presidential election is due in 2028, but the parliament is supposed to call for early voting if the terms prefer Imomoglu, which, according to recent polls in the industry, is convenient to defeat Erdogan.
“The polls presented by the Erdogan most likely showed that even with its advantages and full control over institutions and media, Imomoglu, yet – defeated it – a broad profit – in the vote of the president,” Sonri Kagoppey, Turkish historian and senior employee of Washington.
“That’s why Erdogan chose a nuclear version (against) Imomoglu.”
Recent geopolitical developments, however, strengthened Erdogan’s hand when it comes to international consequences. US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has forced leaders in other countries to flag on democratic norms, some political analysts claim.
“One of the plausible explanations why they are doing so far from the election is that the Turkish government feels geopolitically safe,” Dyson said. “The United States indicates that it is not against such actions, and the EU needs Turkey in Ukraine and Syria, and therefore the Turkish government will take a moment when it expects a minimum international reaction.”
