How safe is the East of the World Trade War?

The global trade war caused by US President Donald Trump There are no signs of decrease when tariffs on Tit-TAT kill large economies, tank stock markets and growth prospects.

Interested economies – North America, European Union and China – face very uncertain futures. But for the Middle East, which is still deprived of additional levies, there are reasons to worry – as well as the opportunity to take advantage.

Economists say the direct impact of tariffs, as well as American import fees and aluminum, have a minimal impact on the Middle East. For example, the Persian Gulf region consists Approximately 16% of American import aluminum in 2024CNBC told the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, the standard diplomatic Mena Carl Slim. Although these sectors can affect, analysts say the hit will be insignificant.

But the blow to growth from the trade war is likely to hurt the cost of oil, the basis of the region’s economy. There are also direct costs in countries whose currencies are tied to the dollar, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.

A US Dollar sold Since the beginning of the year, making imports for countries with dollar tributaries more expensive – a problem for the region, strongly dependent on goods from the border.

However, the trades implemented by the United States usually make a green appeal over time – when it happens, oil becomes more expensive because the goods are traded in dollars. This would give the original impetus to countries exported in the Middle East.

But bad news can lie forward when oil demand slows down from the weakened global trade and delivery.

“Macros -onosis for Mena (Middle East and North Africa) will be weighed by global uncertainty indirectly through oil prices, to that extent Prices for Brent oil“Slim said CNBC.

Since the shock of oil prices in 2014, many of these economies have carried out structural reforms and diversification programs, seeking to reduce their dependence on oil revenue.

“Strengthening resistance to domestic demand remains the best lever for the immunization of local economies from global external upheavals, in our opinion,” Slim said.

However, despite the diversification efforts, oil “still falls for the largest share of income,” said Edward Bell, acting the chief economist in Dubai Emirates NBD.

“For an economy such as the UAE, which is very open to trade, and acts as a global trade facilitator through extensive infrastructure and logistics, the fall of global trade will also become outwardly imposed winds for growth,” Bell said.