High rates when Iran’s nuclear release reaches the moment Crunch

Almost a decade, since the world’s powers have concluded a historical transaction to restrict the Iranian nuclear program, it is the moment of crunching for Iran and the international community.

Now the country is closer than when -something to make a nuclear bomb.

And the agreement – designed to prevent the development of nuclear weapons – ends at the end of this year.

“This is a real fork on the road,” says Dr. San Vakil of the London Analytical Tank Chatham House. “Without meaningful and successful diplomacy, we could see Iran weapons, otherwise we could see a military blow to the Islamic Republic.”

The transaction, painstakingly agreed for almost two years under Barack Obama’s presidency, imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity in return for exemption from the sanctions that crippled the country’s economy.

But after Donald Trump left the Agreement in 2018 during his first presidency and resumed US sanctions, Iran gradually ceased to fulfill his obligations.

It accelerated the enrichment of uranium – used to prepare the reactor, but also potentially nuclear bombs – to the closeness to weapons.

Experts say that Iran will now take less than a week to enrich enough material to make a single nuclear weapon.

Hence the flurry of urgent diplomatic activity by the US and five other parties – the UK, China, France, Germany and Russia.

On Wednesday, the UN Security Council meeting discussed Iran’s nuclear program on Wednesday.

On Friday, China is negotiating with Iran and Russia in search of a “diplomatic” resolution.

“In the current situation, we believe that all parties must support peace and restraint, to avoid the escalation of Iran’s nuclear situation, or even going to confrontation and conflicts,” the press secretary of the Chinese Foreign Ministry said this week.

President Trump’s senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates was delivered to Tehran on Wednesday.

The content was not voiced.

But President Trump, imposing new sanctions in Iran as the Maximum Pressure campaign, issued a television ultimatum last week: to make a deal or yet.

“I wrote to them a letter saying,” I hope you are going to negotiate because if we have to go to the military, it will be a terrible thing, “he said.

Iran’s High leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seemed to dismiss the idea of ​​negotiations with “bullying”.

Also – publicly – my President Masud Peskian, who had previously supported the resurrection of the nuclear transaction, in return for the termination of sanctions.

But the country sends mixed messages.

“There are camps that prefer negotiations in the country,” says D -Vakil. “And there are camps that see weapons as the best opportunity for Iran to manage its safety.”

Trump’s confidence is very insufficient.

“They saw him wrong, very mocking the (President of Ukraine Volodimir) Zelensky. And his terrible gas offers, and they do not want him to be put in this position,” Vakil adds.

Iran hates the humiliation of the gun that holds the head. But now it is vulnerable – last year, weakened by Israeli aviation strikes, which are believed to have destroyed most of the aircraft protection that defend its nuclear program.

Israel has long wanted to take funds.

Iranian authorities continue to insist on the country’s nuclear program for peaceful purposes.

But the concern in the international community is becoming more acute.

Atomic Energy (IAEA) International Agency for Moribund Nuclear Deal Monitoring, says Iran has strengthened its nuclear capabilities over the past few years.

According to the IAE CEO, IEA CEO Rafael Grosi.

“A significantly increased production and accumulation of Iran with a high-enriched uranium, the only non-cellular state of weapons that produces such nuclear material, causes serious concern,” the IAEA said in its latest report.

But the nuclear watchman is no longer able to check what Iran does because the authorities have removed the IAEA observation equipment.

Mr. Gross says that diplomatic interaction with Iran – through everything possible – is now urgent and “indispensable”.

On October 18, the parties of the 2015 nuclear transaction will lose the opportunity to impose so -called “Snap Back” sanctions for violating its conditions.

Thus, the UK, France and Germany are now threatening the sanctions due to the appeal in the hope of pressure while they can still.

“We realize that we will bring any diplomatic measures to prevent the purchase of Iran nuclear weapons, which includes the use of Snapback if necessary,” UK Deputy Ambassador James Kariuk said on Wednesday.

Betting for Iran and the world is high.

“If Tehran decides to build a bomb, it can enrich enough uranium for several warheads throughout the weeks,”-according to Dr. Alexander Bolfras, who focuses on preventing the proliferation of the nuclear proliferation of the International Strategic Studies, another London analytical center.

However, the design and collection of weapons will take several months before a year or more, he said BBC.

“Iran is closer than if – either to the possibility of nuclear weapons,” he says. “But it is still unclear whether she decided to develop nuclear weapons or seeks an impact on negotiations.”