Where the tariffs on the EU will get the most strong

Recent data on tariffs and consumer decisions are clear: increasing the product prices due to higher import taxes, and consumers will move to a cheaper alternative.

It is not good for certain American products, but the states where they are produced as US and EU are involved in the threats to the tit for tat. Think about California almonds, Tennessee whiskey and rear -view mirror.

Since 2017-2019, Tennessee’s Export to the European Union has fallen from $ 362 million against the background of President Donald Trump’s first term, and exports remained low until the tariffs for revenge were suspended, according to a recent report of trade partnership research worldwide. The 2018 Trump tariffs were rejected by the Biden administration in January 2022.

“After the EU has raised tariffs, Tennessee whiskey exports increased by 42% a year after,” said Daniel Anthony, president of the trade partnership worldwide. “But Tennessee exporters know how retaliation can reduce sales again.”

On Thursday, Trump threatened 200% wine and alcohol tariffsand said he “A generally not going to bend” When it comes to American tariffs that are levied on the imports of other countries. Its secret Why the markets would do a big deal With this threat, but for some US states, the EU is a big market.

Unlike the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration where American shippers should pay tariffs In order to obtain their products, mutual tariffs will be exported to the United States, which are paid by EU importers. Higher prices can either reduce demand or close the market.

“There is an expectation that companies will lose sales because EU consumers are moving to less expensive options,” Anthony said.

The data compiled by trading partnerships around the world shows that the cost of US exports, which can be tariff will increase five times, from $ 6 billion (based on the initial tariffs for Trump) to more than $ 27 billion.

“This is the main expansion of tariffs for previous exports,” Anthony said.

Tariffs for retribution EU It is installed in two tranches-products last time, when on April 1, it is transformed and then the extension of additional products provided further discussion, which can be accepted in mid-April.

On the interest basis, the new analysis of the EU retaliation shows that New York and Northern Dakota can potentially have the highest proportion in the crossroads, which can affect the demand for their goods: New York (39%), Northern Dakota (36%), Nebraska (32%) (26%).

In absolute dollars, some states in the east and the Bay coast with large ports are among the best staffs facing new EU tariffs, including New Jersey, Georgia, North and South Carolina, Virginia and Texas. Products from these conditions vary widely: from barrels for alcohol to tobacco and tobacco, peanuts, frozen and fresh orange juice, food oils, motorcycles, dishwashers, clothing, shoes, furniture and carpets.

But Anthony said it was California almonds, Tennessee’s whiskey and michigan mirror mirror, which stand as some of the best examples of acute risk and market need – “the EU is the biggest buyer of these products, and much more tariffs.”

Brandon Daniels, CEO of the Exiger Corporate Risk Advisor, said the EU tariffs place US whiskey manufacturers into a significant competitive shortage.

“States such as Tennessee and Kentucky, whose economy depends significantly on this luxurious exports, feel sharp economic pressure. It is here that policy and trade policy are currently faced,” Daniels said.

Tennessee companies exported $ 575 million to the EU in 2024 (66% of its export).

In 2024, California exported $ 1.2 billion to the EU. The European Union represents 37% of California’s exports to the world.

From Michigan, the company exported $ 519 million to the rear -view mirror in 2024 (48% of their exports to the world).

The company’s car dealership has more talks.

“In previous tariff conflicts, we saw that US exporters of critical car components – for example, the accuracy of Michigan electronics – often partially absorb tariff costs,” Daniels said. “Although the main components will continue to flow, American manufacturers usually share tariff pain with their European buyers, because none of the parties can afford the full cost. This total burden emphasizes how interrelated the car chain in fact.”

Red states outside the condition of the whiskey will feel the pain

In the world of production, Molybdenum used in the production of steel, lubricants, pigments and as a catalyst in the oil industry, is a great export for Arizona to the EU. In 2024, Arizona exported $ 304 million to Malbden to the EU (89% of its exports).

South Carolina exported $ 223 million to flexible polymer ethylene -componers to the EU in 2024 (59% of its exports). This chemical is used in packaging, growing glue, car components and building materials due to its strength, flexibility and adhesive properties.

Several other plastic resins also headed the list for South Carolina and West Virginia, where companies exported $ 146 million to plastic resins to the EU in 2024 (59% of their exports to the world).

In some areas, the current imbalance in the US will influence negotiations.

With a shortage of goods records of nearly $ 236 billion in 2024, the United States is counting on high prices such as vehicles, pharmaceuticals and industrial equipment. But these are the sectors in which Daniels said that in the US the participants of the negotiations have significant leverage.

European carmakers exported about $ 54 billion to the US to the United States in the United States, painting US automotive exports to the EU. Target tariff in the US in this sector will post Significant pressure on European manufacturers – In particular, Germany, whose independent industry accounts for more than 30% of Europe’s total exports to the United States, he said.

According to customs data, summarized Exiger, Pharmaceutical drugs represent the largest export category in Europe, nearly $ 92 billion annually.

“While the orientation to pharmaceuticals through tariffs can be politically fragile, it will directly affect the European pharmaceutical giants, creating strong incentives for Brussels to negotiate. Although by 200% increase in wine and alcoholic beverages that Trump has announced, it is not going.