What does Russia represent Russia in terms of ceasefire?

Tom Bateman

State Department correspondent

Reporting withJed, Saudi Arabia

“It all depends on Vladimir Putin’s response”

As the US government flew out of the jedda at the sun rise, you could see the feeling of achievements among President Donald Trump officials.

After two weeks of galloping with Ukraine, Secretary of State Mark Rubio made what President Trump wanted. Or at least half of it. When he came on board, he had spring.

The hours of negotiations in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday ended with a joint statement by the United States-Ukraine, which agreed with the American “direct” 30-day ceasefire with Russia. In return, to subscribe to this idea, Washington resumes weapons supplies and exploration that shares Kyiv.

Representatives of the Trump administration perceive this as the main breakthrough to the foreign policy targets of the leader who campaigned to end the war.

“He wants to become the president of peace,” Rubio said.

Returning to North America on Wednesday, Rubio talked to the journalists about the deal: “That’s how we would like the world to look in a few days. None of the sides shoots at each other, not rockets, not bullets, nothing, firing.”

For Ukraine, the announcement is a critical appeal for President Wolf Zelensky after a humiliating attack in an oval office Two weeks ago, Trump and Vice President J. D. Vens, confessing to the future US security guarantee. This step followed the suspension of US weapons, which are now being restored.

For Moscow, it moves to their response, and the war itself is intensified.

But so far this proposal to cease fire in the US, which sees only one side – the one that depends on the Americans – is signed.

The US plans to submit Russia’s plan in the coming days.

See: Rubio about how we want

The proposal is only eight paragraphs and contains meager details that do not want to quickly press ahead with Trump’s idea.

Rubio said that “we will bring this proposal to the Russians now … The ball is now in their court.”

So does this stop the fire plausibly? And if so, can it end the war after Russia’s full -scale invasion three years ago a fair and sustainable way, as well as on the conditions that retain the region and the world safe?

It is worth destroying some of what is in the statement to try to analyze it.

“Direct” 30-day ceasefire

“Ukraine expressed its readiness to accept the US proposal to accept the immediate, temporary 30-day ceasefire, which may be expanded by mutual agreement, and subject to adoption and simultaneous implementation of the Russian Federation. The United States will communicate with Russia that the Russian refusal is the key to reaching peace,” “ The statement said.

The key word here is “direct” that leaves no doubt: Trump wants the weapon to be silent now. However, his sense of relevance often led to problems in Europe.

Many fear that by racing the desired result, without pre -developing the conditions, lifted military pressure from Moscow, because the invasion of power and can cause the truce to be operated.

They claim that this gives the opportunity to occupy.

Fear eventually leads Ukraine to effective surrender. The theory is that Russia is a greater, more popular and more self -sufficient force – it can use a truce without setting concessions to consolidate your strength, remove the negotiation process and wait to find out what is happening in the time of its deadline; And even then try to take more positions, based on your current activity and possibly using a fracture in the Western Alliance to threaten greater Europe.

The process of negotiations in terms of ceasefire in conflicts can be important in order for the parties to transform current military threats into significant strategic benefits.

Earlier, Zelensky tried to convince Americans that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted, as evidenced by the fact that he violated European agreements in Minsk after seizing the Ukrainian territory in 2014.

Trump rejects these problems, stating that there will be security for Ukraine, but not to mention how it will be confident. He said that Putin would be released and is in a difficult position with “without choosing”, but to make a deal for the reasons that “I know”.

On Tuesday, Rubio said the US delegation conducted significant discussions with the Ukrainians at the permanent end of the war, including “what type of guarantees they would have for their long -term security and well -being” but did not specify again.

Sharing pause raised

“The United States immediately takes pause for reconnaissance information and restore assistance in Ukraine’s safety,” – Says offering ceasefire.

This is a great victory for Zelensky in this agreement and sees that US weapons deliveries are delivered at a speed of about $ 2 billion (1.5 billion pounds) -Worth a month restored.

Critically, it also means that Washington again share its intelligence and satellite images with Kyiv, which helps her focus on Russian positions. The White House said he had suspended this help because he feels that Zelensky was not “devoted” to Trump’s peace.

The Ukrainian leader tried to express his problems, based on some reasons above when he was thrown out of the oval office. His reservations are probably postponed while he welcomes the agreement in this form – the price is required to pay for the US safety resumption.

Watch: President Trump hopes Putin will agree with Ukraine ceasefire

Security guarantees for Ukraine are unclear

“Both delegations agreed to name their negotiation groups and immediately began negotiations on the unchanging peace, which provides for the long -term security of Ukraine. The United States pledged to discuss these specific proposals with Russian representatives. The Ukrainian delegation said again that the European partners would participate in the process of peace,” ” says the plan.

This item is confused because it is unclear whether it is referred to the negotiations between Ukraine and the US to establish any security guarantees for Ukraine, or if it refers to negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to constantly stop the war when the ceasefire stops.

If this is the same, it seems that Washington and Kiev will kill any decisions on how to back up Ukraine’s security and stop the Russian truce violations and the US will discuss them with Moscow.

But all this is far from what safety guarantee was ultimately wanted by Zelensky, who was NATO membership, which Trump said he would not have been – the main long -term concession to Moscow’s requirements.

The paragraph also contains vague and warm links to the idea of ​​European peacekeepers, which were located by the UK and France, and the line is attributed only to the Ukrainian delegation.

It is noteworthy that the United States does not seem to make its name into this part after Moscow categorically rejected the idea.

A deal of minerals of Ukraine

“… the presidents of both countries agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement on the development of critical mineral resources of Ukraine to expand the economy of Ukraine and guaranteeing the long -term prosperity and security of Ukraine.”

It was an agreement that never subscribed after Zelensky ordered to leave the White House last month.

This would give us a future share in some state deposits of Ukraine, as well as oil and gas revenues.

Trump perceives this as an effective safety guarantee for Ukraine, claiming that this will restrain the Russian re -invading as US companies will be on the ground.

Opponents point out that this is pointless because the economic presence in Ukraine did not hold back Putin in 2014 or 2022.

“The Ukrainian delegation confirmed the strong gratitude of the Ukrainian people to President Trump …”

This is a key line that can help explain the rehabilitation of the White House.

Vens threw him into the Oval Office for not thanked Trump, although the Ukrainian leader thanked the United States dozens of military support.

Trump now has an official Ukrainian thank you on a paper designed for peace.

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