As Trump’s trade policy is putting pressure on US farmers

Caleb Ralaland, Soy Farmer in Magnolia, China, voted for the president Donald Trump In 2016, 2020 and 2024, it should be guided in the tariff mine field at a time when the sector is already facing large winds.

Ralaland works with his wife and three sons and has deep roots in society. His family has been engaged in agriculture on land for more than two centuries. But over the past few years, he has observed a double -digit percentage of reducing the prices for the crop and production costs are rising. Over the last three years, soybean futures decreased by more than 40%, as well as corn futures.

As the pressure in this area, as a result of the tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration,, as well as retaliation from other countries – it is experiencing for the durability of his business.

“My sons can potentially become a 10 -generation if they can engage in economy,” said Raland, who is also the president of the US Soy Association, said CNBC. “And if you have a policy that is completely out of our control – that they manipulate our prices by 20%, 30%, and on the lapel, our expenses are growing – we will not be able to stay in the business.”

This is not the first time farmers had to deal with new tariffs. Back in the first term Trump, a trade war with China in 2018 – a time when Ralaland said More than 27 billion dollarsAnd soy made almost 71% of the annual losses.

This trade war caused a strong damage. To this day, the United States has yet fully restored its losses to Soy Exports to China, in the world Buyer number one itemAccording to ASA.

“Tariffs violate trust,” Ralaland said. “It is much more difficult to find new customers than to keep the ones you already have.”

Last week the White House imposed 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico Along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports.

While Trump soon canceled the course providing a single monthly delay for automakers Wednesday, then stop tariffs through the day Some Canadian and Mexican goods before April 2He said in an interview that was aired on Sunday on Fox News that tariffs “Over time can rise.

Tariffs for China were not included in these exceptions. China has avenged their own fees that Mainly focused on the US agricultural goods. In particular, the United States is now subjected to an additional 10%tariff, while corn gets into an additional 15%.

“We are already unprofitable at the moment,” Radland said. “Why are we trying to add an insult to the AH sector, mostly adding tax?”

Radland noted that “the president’s ability to negotiate” and wants Trump to be successful for the country. However, he emphasized that those who, especially the manufacturers of the soybean, have no “elasticity in our ability to withdraw a trade war that takes out of our essence.”

“People are upset,” Ralaland said about the mood of other farmers, emphasizing that they all need Programs of Product SupportAmong others. “You talk about the livelihood of people,” he said.

Last week, the Minister of Agriculture Brooke Rolinz said that Trump’s administration was reported Weighing Liberations from some agricultural products from tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Trump’s corrective measures on Thursday included reduced 10% fare per potassiumused for fertilizers.

Canada shipped over 80% of the needs of US farmers, said Ken Seuz with Nutrients .

“When we look at the consequences of the Nutrieen tariffs, of course, the biggest discussion is potassium, and it is because the market, which is 10 million to 11 million tons in any year, we supply about 40% of this market,” the chief executive of the company emphasized during the conference. “We believe that the tariff price will be transferred to the American farmer.”

Even during the tariffs on Trump, American farmers were alarming. Despite the last University of Pear/CME Group AG Economics Barometer Reading, showing that the farmer’s moods as a whole improved in February, 44% showed that this month was the most important for their farms in the next five years.

“Usually, when you ask a policy question, the most important policy is the crop insurance,” said Michael Langeier, Agricultural Economist of the University of Pear. “Harvest insurance right there with Apple Pie and Baseball. This is a program that really likes because it provides a very effective security network.”

“The fact that the crop insurance was a distant second of trade policy, says in many ways,” he said.

The poll in February also found that nearly 50% of farmers said they believed that a trade war, which leads to a significant decrease in US agriculture, “probably” or “very likely”. Langemeier estimated that 33% occurred between mid -February to early March for the drop in the acre of net profitability for soybeans and corn -related tariffs. This is in addition to the fact that 2025 “did not end extremely profitable the year before,” he discovered.

The economist believes that there may be a little adjustment down in the near future. However, the constructive consequence of the tariffs can be that they have accelerated the signing of a new bill on the farm, he said.

“Well, how in the world you can come up with the amount for trading payments if you don’t even know what amounts for the bill on the farm will be,” Langeier said. He expects a new signing of the farm bills this year.

Based on the future of the spring season, the Bank’s Bank’s analyst Steve Birne wrote to note on February 25 that tariffs could lead to “more conservative purchases of admission”. This will mean the risk of reducing fertilizer purchases, which can affect not only Nutrine but also others Mosaic and CF IndustriesThe analyst noted.

Shares of these companies as well as other shares related to agriculture such as Agco and SettlementEveryone parted on March 3 and 4 by Trump’s fares.

“I think we saw a sale AG only because of the common problems that the peasant will not be so profitable this year,” Setter said in an interview with CNBC.

Over the last month, Mosaic slid by almost 8%and CF Industries decreased by more than 9%. Nutrien also lost more than 1%. AGCO and Deere went better at this time, gaining 1.7% and 0.3% respectively.

When it comes to how this trade war will affect US farmers in the long run, Goldstein does not see this value. It believes that global trade flows will change and cancel each other over the next two years.

“Although this year, soy-sitting soybeans can have a closer impact, without accessible buyers, I think we will see other countries in the end and then buy more soybeans,” the strategist said. “Perhaps China buys more soy in Brazil, but perhaps a place like Europe buys more soy in the US, and we get … Not much difference.”

Brazil is currently usually Department of Agriculture. For corn, on the other hand, the US is forecast to be first placed 31% global production In the marketing year.

Others on Wall -States believe that tariffs will be more consequence in the dynamics of trade.

Kristen Owen, Analyst OPPENHIMER, predicts that the responsibilities are likely to secure Brazil, will become the main manufacturer of both corn and soy, while the United States will become a gradual supplier in the world.

“Brazil specifically has more opportunities to grow an area, greater growth ability to increase its share in the world of grain trade,” she said CNBC. “Tariffs and some other decisions that the administration makes simply speed up some of them.”