As Trump’s policy can affect the US dollar price

The forecast for the US economy and expectations for further market volatility will deteriorate in currency estimates – with market observers, divided into currencies, they see as solid safe shelters.

Geopolitical development only this month saw tariffs on the US in Canada, Mexico and China Come to influence, President Donald Trump ‘s reported pause on military assistance to Ukraine, Softer US Economic data from the US and European leaders committing Increases protection costs.

Jane Foleh, the FX strategy head at Rabobank London, said CNBC by e -mail on Tuesday what awaits British pound and Japanese yen be winners in current conditions.

“The fact that the US data suggests that there is a modest trade surplus in the UK, it suggests that the latter will hardly be in Trump’s sights, and GBP is likely to continue crushing above the euro,” she said. “Given the said, it is stretched to call a pound safe refuge.”

Trump hint Following the meeting with the Prime Minister of the British Prime Minister Keira Starmer last week that the UK could avoid being tariffs in the United States.

On Tuesday, Sterling traded at $ 1,2712 at 10:19 in the morning, which noted the increase of 0.1% to the US dollar, but decreased by about 0.1% compared to the euro. Since the beginning of the year, the British currency has received 1.6% against the green appeal, according to LSEG.

“Japan also has a strong hand in communication with the US,” said CNBC. “Although Japan has a trade surplus from the US, it is the largest Treasury owner outside the US and is the largest FDI supplier (foreign direct investment) in the US (Prime Minister Shiger) is obliged to increase investment flows In the US and the Japanese growth of the defense budget almost all of the US “

Fules also noted that Japan’s political conditions have advocated the ENU, which has gained 5% against the green appeal since the beginning of the year.

“How much the basics of Japan has improved, and if the Bank of Japan is the only Central Bank of G10 with an increase, I expect that (it) will act well this year, which is likely to strengthen its powers as a safe shelter,” she said.

David Rosh, a quantum strategy strategy, has agreed that the current conditions have reinforced long ago, which was heard by Japanese currency as hedge against volatility, believing that geopolitical instability in the West could secure it as a “new safe refuge”.

Speaking with “Squawk Box Europe” CNBC, Rosh discussed the fall from Trump and the public confrontation with the Vice -President JD Vance with the President of Ukraine Valodimir Zelensky in the Oval office last Friday.

Rosh claimed that the Trump administration’s policy could see the green return plot of FX Market Safe Haven.

“The big loser is actually the United States because no one will trust the US treaty again,” he said that the US refused to support Ukraine. His comments came to the White House official – said the media On Tuesday, the United States stopped all military assistance to Ukraine.

“You want to save from Euro And he owns, which is now a new safe shelter when the US looks very dangerous. “

Kamal Sharma, FX strategist at Bofa Global Research, took another position to Rosha on the euro, and claimed that the impact of Trump’s tariffs could have a limited impact on foreign exchange markets.

“The FX has accepted night ads in its step, although the tone in the G10 FX is slightly defended this morning when (Swiss Frank) is profitable compared to dollars and even (Canadian dollar), which packed out some initial losses,” he said in the e -mail on Tuesday. “High Beta -Beth -G10 FX are under certain pressure, especially antipodes on Chinese proxy.”

“We have used the term” tariff cleaning “to describe how markets were alert for implementation since the beginning of the year,” Sharma added. “Thus, the ads were not quite unexpected in the context of what has already been said. Part of the story is now being putting the ball in the EU’s court during the night, and there is more urgency of intensifying defense costs, and it helps European actions (The Euro) using higher (bonds) of yield. “

However, Dominic Snider, the head of the global FX and the goods in UBS Global Wealth Management, claimed against the case for the Swiss Frank, who rallied on the back of events across the Atlantic.

“Franc” Safer-Haven “decreases since geopolitical problems of lightness, and investors can move significantly to higher yields such as (Australian dollar) and (British pound),” he said.

“In our view, the general viewing of the Swiss Franco is not convincing, and although it should trade compared to the euro for most of the year, Frank remains under pressure on the best yields,” Schnidder added.

Meanwhile, Christian Muller-Gladman, head of the asset distribution study in Goldman Sachs, said CNBC on Monday that the dollar would still rise. Since the beginning of the year Index of dollar .

“We think there is still up … (US) dollar,” said Mueller-glove. “I know that the dollar is now becoming a different story … With the rest of the world looks better. But if you want to look at Safe Haven FX, one currency that has done nothing over the last nine months,” this Swiss franc – our team looked a lot on the influence of tariffs on Switzerland, and it may be lower than what you get.