What a pause in the USA Military Aid can mean for Ukraine

President Donald Trump’s decision to stop all assistance in the US in Ukraine is a bitter blow – not only for Kiev, but also European allies lobbying the US administration to continue their support.

This is not the first time the United States retained military aid. Republicans in Congress blocked the largest President Joe Biden for Ukraine in the summer of 2023.

Then Ukraine almost managed to release its existing actions of ammunition with the help of Europe.

Congress finally approved a 60 billion -pound help package in the spring of 2024. It was just in time – Ukraine fought for the retreat of the updated Russian offensive in Kharkiva. The arrival of the US weapons delay helped turn the tide.

As in 2024, it may have passed months before the consequences of cutting off American aid – at least in terms of ammunition and equipment. European countries have slowly increased production of artillery shells. In general, Europe now provides Ukraine with 60 percent of assistance – more than the US.

However, the US military support is still vital for Ukraine. One of the Western officials recently called it a “cream” in terms of weapons.

Ukraine’s ability to defend people and cities has greatly relied on the complex US air defense systems – such as patriots and NASAM batteries, jointly designed with Norway.

The US gave Ukraine the opportunity to hit long -range action – with Himars and ATACM missiles. The United States has restricted its use in Russia, but they are still vital for achieving high cost goals within the occupied territories.

It is not only quality but also quantity. As the most powerful military in the world, she was able to send hundreds of excess Humvees and armored vehicles – figures that smaller European armies could never match.

The absence of this assistance may take time to filter on the frontline. But there may be more anxious influence, not least in terms of intelligence exchange.

No nation can comply with the US in terms of space observation, intelligence collection and communications. And it is not just provided by US military, but also commercial companies.

Take the Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network. Every Ukrainian position I visited on the front has a Starlink dish.

They are used to transfer the latest information on the battlefield. They were important for coordinating artillery and drones.

In the past, the Pentagon has acknowledged that it finances this lifeline. Given that Elon Musk is a key figure in the US administration, it seems very unlikely that it will be ready to issue a bill. He is also a harsh critic of the President of Ukrainian Volodimir Zelensky.

Will the United States prevent US countries to send its equipment to Ukraine? When Europe wanted to provide JETS producing Ukraine, it had to receive Washington permission for the first time.

What about maintaining the equipment that is laid out in the US? The US also trains Ukrainian forces and then help them support the equipment located in the US.

Biden has raised restrictions on US contractors working in Ukraine by the end of its term. In particular, Jets F-16 requires engineers and spare parts to continue to work.

Trump’s decision can stop help, many in Ukraine and abroad seems difficult. But there is also an obviously political goal to force them to the negotiation.

Hope among European allies is that it will be just a pause. Without US support, Ukraine will find its even more violent struggle for survival.