The first quarter goes on the way to the negative GDP growth, says Atlanto Fed Indicator

Early economic data for the first quarter of 2025 indicate a negative growth, the Atlanta Federal Bank reports.

Central Bank Gdpnow Input tracker indicates that the gross domestic product goes to speed to shrink 1.5% for the period for January-March, according to the update on Friday morning.

Fresh indicators showed that consumers spent less than expected during the disobedient weather and export were weak, leading to a decrease. Prior to the GDPNOW Consumer Costs on Friday indicates a 2.3% growth for the quarter.

Although the volatile tracker and usually becomes a more reliable measure later in the quarter, it coincides with some other measures that demonstrate growth slowing.

“This is sober, despite the inherent volatility of the very high frequency” NOWCAST “, which is supported by the Atlanta Fed,” said Mohammed El Eriyan, Chief Economic Advisor Alasian and President of the Cambridge College Quins, Cambridge- In the message On the Social Media X.

The sensor pointed to income from GDP to 3.9% in early February, but since then came as additional data came.

On Friday, Reports the Department of Trade These personal expenses decreased by 0.2%in January, skipping the Dow Jones’s estimate by 0.1%. Adjustable for inflation, costs decreased by 0.5%. As a result, this was a full percentage of the expected contribution to GDP, reducing 1.3%, according to the GDPNow calculation.

At the same time, the contribution of net exports collapsed from -0.41 percentage points to -3.7 percentage points.

The combination of data and its impact on the growth forecast comes from Surveys indicating a decrease in consumer confidence and care for inflation growth. The Department of Trade also reports that the inflation measure that the Fed has fallen decreased throughout the month, as the main index of personal consumption expenses decreased to 2.6%, which is 0.3 percent compared to December.

Week also brought some news out of the job market as Initial claims to unemployment Click the level that was the last above in early October.

In addition, the bond market has also been prices for slower growth. The 3-month Treasury this week has moved above the 10-year note, A Histically a reliable recession indicator On a 12-18 month horizon.

Economic and political uncertainty has led to an unequal start of the year For the stock market. Industrial average Dow Jones increased by 2% in 2025 amid wild fluctuations in the volatile news cycle.

“I feel that the self -esteem that has penetrated the asset markets will soon be broken,” said Joseph Brossulas, the chief American economist RSM.

Markets are increasingly believing that the Fed will respond to slowing by numerous decreases in the interest rate this year. Traders in the Future Fed Fed Fed increased the chances of reducing the quarter -in -rate point in June to approximately 80% as of Friday afternoon and increased the possibility of three such cuts this year.