Faced with disarray, the defiant Trudeau is holding on for now

It was one of the worst weeks of his political career, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in early season.

At the Liberal Party’s annual holiday gathering, Trudeau put on a party face despite being stunned the day before by the sudden resignation of one of his most trusted allies, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, hours before she was due to deliver an economic statement to the parliament.

But even as some members of his own party called for him to step down, the prime minister made a bold statement, striking a tone as he addressed the party faithful in his navy blue suit and tie.

He hinted at his “tough” week, comparing it to a family fight.

He discussed being “bold” and “ambitious” in the face of adversity, and sharply rebuked his political rival, Pierre Pouilleau, leader of the opposition Conservative Party of Canada.

Experts later noted that it sounded a lot like a campaign speech and that despite the latest political upheaval, Trudeau seems to be holding his own.

That position did not change Friday, even after the leader of the country’s progressive New Democratic Party (NDP), Jagmeet Singh, said he would introduce a motion to oust the Trudeau government in the new year. It was the support of the NDP that kept the Liberals in power. Elections seem imminent.

However, Trudeau has not yet given any indication that he will step down anytime soon, although he has reportedly told party members that he will need time during the winter break to think about what to do.

Political observers say Trudeau has often shown a streak of defiance when under pressure, which has helped him weather a string of controversies during his nine years in power.

And he has often been underestimated, such as when he won a majority government in 2015 at the age of 44, despite being seen as something of a dilettante by his political opponents.

But as pressure mounts for him to step down, some of those same experts say he may need a new strategy.

When Trudeau first ran for prime minister, he was followed by three words: simply not ready.

The phrase was the slogan of an attack ad that ran repeatedly across the country as he tried to oust incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a Conservative who has been in power since 2004.

It dealt with the usual criticisms he faced at the time about his young age, relative lack of experience and his circuitous path into politics.

Canadian historian Raymond Blake said Trudeau “kind of bounced around” in early life before becoming a drama teacher in Vancouver, seemingly isolated as the famous and wealthy son of former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

But soon after entering politics, Trudeau took a combative stance.

Some say he learned this trait from his father, who was known for his charismatic yet combative leadership style, and who is known for his catchphrase “just watch me,” which he shrewdly told a reporter in the midst of a political battle. crisis.

“His father had the image of a really steady, very tough politician,” said Lawrence Martin, a longtime Canadian political analyst based in Washington.

The younger Trudeau continued to challenge himself, scoring a historic victory for his Liberal Party, coming third in parliament to a majority seat in his first federal election.

“It makes him feel like he can overcome big obstacles,” Mr. Martin said, adding that politically Trudeau is operating with “extreme confidence.”

Trudeau’s path to power proved bumpy when he took office after being embroiled in a series of political scandals.

In her first term, Justice Minister Jodi Wilson-Raybould – the first Indigenous woman to hold the post – resigned amid what she called interference and “veiled threats” from senior government officials seeking legal services for a company that was tried for corruption.

As he ran for a second term in 2019, Trudeau’s re-election campaign was rocked by published images showing him as a young man with brownface at least three times.

And a year later, in 2020, Trudeau faced another ethics scandal involving a potentially large government contract for a youth charity that worked with members of the Trudeau family.

But in the face of every setback, Trudeau held on to power. He was re-elected twice, making him the longest-serving G7 leader.

“Trudeau has been through so much,” Professor Blake said, noting that his political success and leadership have won the loyalty of many in his party despite the scandals.

While Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time may be running out.

For one thing, history is not on his side. Only one Canadian prime minister, Sir John Macdonald – the country’s first – has served four consecutive terms.

Trudeau is also working against falling popularity. A September Ipsos poll found that about two-thirds of Canadians disapprove of him. Only 26% of respondents said Trudeau was their top candidate for prime minister, 19 points behind Conservative leader Poilieu.

And then there’s the gradual erosion of support within Trudeau’s own party. So far, at least 18 Liberal MPs have called on their leader to resign.

“He’s wrong if he thinks we can go on like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.

“It is unfair to us MPs, unfair to the ministers and, most importantly, unfair to the country. We need to move on in a new direction and we need to reboot.”

According to Long, who initiated Trudeau’s ouster, about 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him to step down immediately. There are roughly the same number of Trudeau loyalists, he said, and the rest are on the fence.

“There are still some supporters of the party who love him and, you know, want to support him,” Mr. Martin said. columnist from DC. “But if you had a secret ballot in the Liberal caucus on whether he should stay or not, he would be easily defeated.”

The prime minister also seemed forced to stay because of his disdain for his political opponent Poilieu, Mr Martin noted.

“He doesn’t want to back down and wants to fight Pierre Poiliev, whom he hates,” he said.

Trudeau’s dogged persistence in the face of a bleak political outlook has drawn comparisons to outgoing US President Joe Biden, who abandoned his candidacy months before the November election only after mounting domestic pressure.

Professor Blake said Trudeau’s legacy, like Biden’s, will depend on how he leaves. A losing battle, he said, could leave Trudeau with a “long scar.” But the prime minister has an excellent ability to survive, he noted.

“He survived, and he didn’t do what’s normal. Will it be normal – whatever it is – this time? Maybe, but I’m not convinced.”

Trudeau’s dilemma is also similar to that faced by his father, who won three consecutive elections and won a fourth less than a year after leaving power.

But in 1984, more than 15 years after first becoming prime minister, the elder Trudeau — like his son now — faced dire poll results. It seemed clear that he would not win the next election if he stayed. He decided to resign, telling the public that he made the decision after walking in a snowstorm in Ottawa.

Since then, the term “snow walk” has become synonymous with political resignation in Canada. It remains to be seen whether Trudeau will go it alone this Christmas.