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US President Donald Trump at a press conference at the end of the NATO summit on July 12, 2018.
Bernd von Yutrchenko | dpa | photo alliance | Getty Images
US President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House on Monday, and much of the world is watching with bated breath.
The prospect of a more unpredictable foreign and trade policy, especially the threat of universal trade tariffs of 10-20%, has raised concerns internationally and spooked financial markets. But Trump’s transactional approach and his “America First” policy don’t strike fear into everyone.
In fact, many countries are welcoming a new era that is being called “Trump 2.0.”
“Trump’s return has been mourned by America’s longtime allies, but hardly anyone else,” the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank said. global survey which found that people in China and Russia were more optimistic about Trump’s return to power than longtime allies in Europe and Asia.
“Many people think that Trump will not only be good for America, but also that he will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and US-China relations,” the survey of more than 28,000 people in 24 countries.
“In countries from India and China to Turkey and Brazil, more respondents think Trump will be good for America, their country, and world peace than think he will be bad for them,” the ECFR concluded.
The survey found that respondents in India, Saudi Arabia and Russia were the most optimistic about Trump’s return to office, both in terms of whether it would be good for US citizens and for their own countries.
Almost 60% of Russian respondents believe that Trump’s election was good for US citizens, and 49% – for Russia.
46% of Chinese respondents believe that Trump’s return was good for China. This is despite Trump’s threat to impose tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods imported from China, a move that could hit the Chinese economy but also backfire, likely pushing up prices for American consumers.
Russian soldiers near the American M2 Bradley combat vehicle captured in Ukraine.
Images of Sopa | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Positive sentiment toward Trump in the original BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)—and belief that his presidency could usher in a more peaceful world—was significantly higher than in the EU, Britain, and South Africa. Korea, where only 11% of citizens surveyed see Trump’s presidency as good for their future.
On a slightly more cheerful note, only 15% of British respondents think Trump will be good for the UK. “special relationship”.
“When Donald Trump returns to the White House, most of the world will welcome him. Anxiety is widespread in Europe, but people in many other countries feel relaxed or positive about Trump’s second term,” ECFR said in a November poll.
“US allies in Europe and South Korea are particularly pessimistic about the future president, which indicates further weakening of the geopolitical “West,” the report added.
Geopolitical analysts say things will be different this time with President Trump, and the world should be ready.
He not only emboldened from the scale of his victory in the 2024 electionwith solid support from a unified Republican Party and returning to the White House with more experience, he has also surrounded himself with loyal supporters who are ideologically closer to him, noted Ian Bremer, founder and president of Eurasia Group.
Bremer told CNBC that Trump 2.0 would see the president wield more power and influence than before, while the West and the G7 — a group that includes Britain, Canada and Germany — would lose status.
“Trump has a lot more power with other countries this time — both US allies and adversaries — so they’re more likely to listen to him and take him seriously,” Bremer told CNBC in emailed comments.
“Trump also has more countries and populations to support his ‘my country first’ approach to governance,” Bremer added.
“In his first term he had a strong relationship with Israel and the Gulf countries, but now add Italy, Hungary, Argentina, El Salvador … and large parts of the population in a number of other countries. This is very different from Trump. appearing at the G20 and everyone is giggling behind his back,” he noted.
“Today’s G-Zero world is a completely different environment,” Bremer added, referring to his vision of a world in which no single force or group of forces is willing or able to drive the global agenda to maintain international order.
Market analysts agree that while Trump’s antipathy toward China, the U.S.’s biggest economic rival, is well known, his long-standing ambivalence toward NATO and his anger over persistent trade deficits with much of Europe make allies on the continent a target for Trump. more assertive and potentially hostile trade and defense policies.
European countries make up the majority of NATO’s constituents and the EU is the largest trading partner of the US as a bloc.
“Here in Europe we are concerned,” said market strategist Bill Blain (if he’s independent, can we please say which company/organization he’s from) in emailed comments last week. “However, the rest of the world is largely unconcerned about the scale of change that could occur.”
“Obviously, geopolitical lines are crossing. In this way, the foundations of the global economy will be redefined,” Blaine added.