Russian invasion of drone in Poland checks NATO determination

On Wednesday morning, the invasion of Russian drones into the Polish airspace led to the fact that the aircraft were called, caused by an emergency meeting – and concerned that Europe and NATO’s determination against Moscow may not be tested.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the Polish air space was broken 19 times, and at least three drones were beaten by Warsaw planes, using the Dutch F-35 and the Italian early aircraft.

Russia pushed away the allegations that the invasion was intentional – although it also did not give up its drones who violated the sovereign Polish space.

“No objects were planned to be aimed at any facilities in the Polish territory,” Moscow said.

But European officials are forcibly deprived of proposals that the act may have been unintended.

“There is no evidence that this number of drones flew along this path … by accident,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistaria, while his Italian colleague Guida Crosset called events on the night in Poland “intentional attack” for “provocation and testing”.

Despite the fact that Poland survived several violations of its airspace, because in February 2022 it was attacking Ukraine, this is the last invasion – a significant and deep into the Polish territory – caused genuine nervousness in Warsaw.

Tusk warned that Poland was in the closest conflict after World War II. He also demanded to address Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which allows the member countries to start discussion with allies about their security threats.

Some experts and analysts are divided into the motivation of Russia.

For some, drones – some of which flew towards the Rzeszow airport, the main material and technical center for protection and humanitarian aid – may have had intelligence goals, and bad guidance led to random air space violations.

“There is a problem with the intention,” said D -R -Marina Miron, Kings College London Research.

She believes that the forgery of the GPS may be responsible for crossing the drones to the Polish airspace and warned from the conclusion based on fragments of information. “It can lead (incident) to look like something that’s wrong,” D -Miron added.

However, many others believe that a relatively large number of drones flew into the Polish air space, clearly demonstrating that the attack was intentional.

“Previous invads were single or very small figures that were easier to explain the malfunction of the management system,” said Justin Branak of the defense analytical tank of Russia.

Justin Krump, CEO of the Sibylline Risk and Intelligence Company, agreed. He said that drones appears to be Russian cheap, distant drones, which can be used as a bait to distract the defense within an increase in the “Russian” gray zone against NATO.

The lack of combat heads on drones operating on Wednesday make them less threatening and allow Russia to play the action, Mr. Crump added.

Now Poland will need to review the incident and share its conclusions with its allies.

Be intentionally or not, an unprecedented incident will give Moscow valuable information about the type of response, which it can expect from the West if it will decide to start an attack on NATO, as many European leaders have stated that they were expecting it soon.

“This is a test for Europe and for NATO, regardless of Russia’s intentions,” said Kire Jels, a senior employee of the Russian and Eurasia program at the Chatem House.

“Russia will study on European determination and, in particular, Poland’s opportunities to resist such attacks.”

Mr -n Jilles added a clear condemnation, not a reliable reaction if it was an accident, as if it were a purposeful provocation.

He said that Sky Shield will prove to Russia to protect the airspace over Ukraine that the West is serious about ensuring the interception of air threats.

But such a plan – which would include European countries that deploy fighter jets and pilots – led to fear of accidental confrontation with the Russians and did not pass, despite the fact that they first sailed since 2023.

The US reaction to the incident in Poland will also be expected – and keep a close eye on.

Some US legislators both in the Democrat and the Republican camps condemned the attack shortly after it took place.

However, as of Wednesday evening, US President Donald Trump recognized only events in Poland through a social media position. “What about Russia, which violates Poland’s air space with drones?

Cryptic Post was in line with its ambiguous relations with Russia and its President Vladimir Putin.

During the last month, Trump simultaneously rolled out a red carpet for the Russian president and threatened with sanctions against Moscow if he could not reach peace with Kiev.

These threats have not yet materialized, and even warnings about uncertain “consequences” for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, it seems, fell into the background.

As its leaders are struggling to gather unity and power, Europe, which is concerned about the American commitment to the continent’s safety from the beginning of Trump, will watch the next US movement as close as Russia.

“The sign of weakness and non -fulfillment of the costs and consequences for Moscow to confirm that they can continue to grow without fear,” Mr. Jiles said.

Additional reporting Matt Murphy and Paul Brown