32 countries but only one person matters

NATO summits are usually “pre -cooked”, not least to present the united front.

Secretary -General Mark Rute has already stopped on the menu for his meeting in The Hague: the one that avoids the line with the most powerful NATO participant.

A commitment to increasing the cost of defense of European allies is a dish that President Donald Trump wants to serve – and this is what he will receive. Although inevitably the ingredients of compromise and fiction will be added.

The summit will also not be able to translate cracks between Trump and many of its European allies on trade, Russia and the escalation conflict in the Middle East.

The US president, whose mantra is America, is not a great supporter of transnational organizations.

He was also very critical of NATO – even questioning its collective defense. In the first term Trump, at his first NATO summit, he stopped European allies for not spending enough and thanks to the “large sum” of the United States.

In this message he has at least been consistent.

Mark Rute, who has a good relationship with the US president, worked hard to give him victory.

The summit takes place at the Hague World Forum for two days, Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Now the main discussions will last only three hours, and the statement at the summit is reduced to five paragraphs, as it is reported, from the demands of the US president.

Trump is one of the 32 leaders of the Western Defense Alliance who come with the leaders of more than a dozen partners.

Dutch police have established its largest security for the most expensive NATO summit still, worth 183.4 million euros (£ 155 million; $ 210 million).

Some suggested that the summit’s brevity is partly pleasing to the US president’s attention and dislike for long meetings. But a shorter summit with fewer discussed subjects will be more important, it will help to hide the divisions.

Ed Arnold from the defense analytical tank of Russia says Trump likes to be a star show and predicts that he will be able to claim European countries to act.

In truth, he is not the first US president who criticized the Allied Protection Costs. But he had greater success than most. Kurt Volker, a former US Ambassador to NATO, admits that some European governments do not like how Trump went for it – demanding that allies spend 5% of his GDP defense.

In Europe, only 30% of NATO’s total military expenses remain. Volker says that now many Europeans admit that “we needed to do it, even if it is a pity he took such a blow.”

Some European countries are already increasing protection costs to 5% of GDP. Most of the countries living in the immediate vicinity of Russia – such as Poland, Estonia and Lithuania.

It is not just a Trump that exposes pressure. The invasion of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine makes it respond.

But in fact, many NATO members will fight for achieving a new goal. Few have not reached the goal 2%more than a decade ago.

The compromise formula of the Rute is that the Allies have increased their main protection costs to 3.5% of GDP, and an additional 1.5% on protection costs.

But determining the cost -related cost seems so vague that it can be meaningless. Rute says it may include the cost of the infrastructure industry – construction bridges, roads and railways. Ed Arnold, Russia, says it will inevitably lead to more “creative accounting”.

Even if, as expected, the new purpose of the expenses will be approved, some countries may have little intention to reach it – up to 2032 or 2035. The temporary level is still unclear. The Spanish Prime Minister has already called it unreasonable and counterproductive. Sir Keir Starmer couldn’t even say when the UK spends 3% of his GDP defense. The Prime Minister of the UK only stated that the next parliament was ambition. However, given the UK government’s stated policy to put NATO at the heart of the UK defense policy, Sir Keira will have to reinforce a new plan.

Real danger – interpret the demand for increasing protection costs as an arbitrary, symbolic gesture – either just bowing to our pressure. It is also due to NATO’s own plans to defend how it responded to Russia’s attack. Rute himself said Russia could attack NATO for five years.

These defense plans remain secret. But Rute has already outlined what the alliance lacks. In a speech earlier this month, he said that NATO requires an increase in air and missile defense protection by 400%: thousands of more armored vehicles and tanks, and more than millions of artillery shells.

Most of the member states, including the UK, have not yet fulfilled their obligations. That is why Sweden plans to double the size of its army, and Germany seeks to increase its detachment numbers by 60,000.

Plans consist of detailed details as the Alliance will defend its eastern flank when Russia invads. In a recent speech, the head of the United States Army in Europe, General Christopher Donow, emphasized the need to defend the Polish and Lithuanian territory near the Russian Kaliningrad. He said the alliance considered his existing opportunities and “realized very quickly that they were not enough.”

However, it will be strange, specific discussions on Russia and the war in Ukraine will be muted. This is the only big question that now shares Europe and America. Kurt Volker says that under Trump, the US “does not consider Ukrainian security as important for European security, but our European allies do.”

Trump has already broken the united NATO front, talking to Putin and giving up military support to Ukraine.

Ed Arnold says that the summit was deprived of controversial issues. Not least to avoid split with Trump. The leaders had to discuss Russia’s new strategy, but it is not on the agenda.

President of Ukrainian Valodimir Zelensky was invited to dinner at the summit, but he does not participate in the main discussions of the North Atlantic Council.

Rute will hope that his first summit as a secretary -general will be short and sweet. But with Trump, they diverge with most of their allies in Russia, the greatest threat facing the alliance, there is no guarantee that it will go according to the plan.